andrew sauer

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Ukraine Post #8: Risk of Nuclear War

As a first approximation, if the food production falls to a level of X% of the required calories for the population, your probability of surviving is roughly X%.


I mean, today food production is significantly more than 100% of the required calories for the population and many people are still food insecure

Ukraine Post #8: Risk of Nuclear War

If a full scale nuclear exchange occurs, the probability of death does not come mostly from the nuclear blasts themselves, or even the nuclear fallout from those blasts. Rather it comes from the breakdown of critical infrastructure needed to produce food for a population. If every major city is destroyed at once, you almost certainly won't survive a year even if you are nowhere near a blast zone. Your only chance is if you already have the means to farm sustainably without buying manufactured goods. Even most farmers these days can't do this, at least not easily, because they need gas. Even if you are one of the few in a position to survive in this way, everyone who can't will be gunning for you, because they don't want to starve.

I don't want to live through nuclear war. The worst parts have nothing to do with the explosions. The worst part comes after. It will essentially be a siege, everywhere in the world at once. People will eat each other.

You can tell a drawing from a painting

Reminds me of the fact that kolmogorov complexity depends on the model of computation: two turing-complete systems can do the same set of things, but it may be far simpler to do something in one than the other.

To Change the World

She should read this:

NATO: Cognitive Warfare Project

Holy shit I have rarely seen anything this terrifying. Every country is already doing this

NATO: Cognitive Warfare Project

Man, I feel like everyone is eventually going to get got by things like this

Is moral duty/blame irrational because a person does only what they must?

Sure that would fall into the category of "justice for practical reasons rather than for its own sake"

Is moral duty/blame irrational because a person does only what they must?

And so I have concluded that there is no basis on which to judge others as “to blame” or as “morally wrong”. Thus punishment makes no sense in terms of being “deserved”, and neither does vengeance (except possibly in terms of the vengeance seeker seeking their own emotional pleasure/relief/closure).

I think this is a pretty commonly held view on this site, and Yudkowsky would probably agree, especially since you clarified that you still see utility in justice for practical reasons, rather than for its own sake.

I unfortunately can't find where right now, but I think Yudkowsky has said somewhere that he wants AI to create a utopia for everybody, and not punish criminals, no matter how horrible of people they were. After all, once an FAI has taken power, those criminals are no more threat to society because the FAI can always stop them from doing evil things, and thus there is no reason to try to rein them in with punishment, except for what is essentially spite/arbitrary emotional pleasure.

As for free will, I think it does exist, but not in the sense that libertarians want it to. It exists in a more practical sense, it's more something like "if we made a law against this thing it might actually deter people" than "people are metaphysically able to take different choices in a way which somehow is neither deterministic nor random".

The scourge of perverse-mindedness

I dunno, man, my angst at the state of the universe isn't that it is meaningless, but that it is all too meaningful and horrible and there is no reason for the horror to ever stop.

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