LESSWRONG
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1Angela's Shortform
5mo
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Angela's Shortform
Angela5mo3-1

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The Parable of Predict-O-Matic
Angela11mo10

Anything/anyone trying to predict the future will have "being right" as its best interest. Be it a machine or a human being. If I predict GOOPGOOP coin is going to hit $1M market cap, I have all the incentive to make it happen (competitive systems will invariably cause negative phenomena to emerge).


I won't consider it a chilling narrative of AI based prediction markets, I'd rather consider this as a layout of the agency problem that's present in every single relationship and more as a prompt for us to look inward in our own decision-making dynamics

Having said that ^ I'm unsure (also concerned) that given the rise of prediction markets (i just mean Polymarket gaining traction) where would we draw the line between predicting the future and shaping it. We are tottering along wherever the $$$ is taking us

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