Oh that's an interesting way to approach things! If you were asked : a fair coin is tossed, what is the probability it will land on head - wouldn't you reply 1/2, and wouldn't you for your reply be relying on such a thing as conventional probability theory?
Well, I hope that the self-importance shown in this post is not a true reflection of the community; although unfortunately I think it might well be.
One aspect of this I find anthropologically interesting is the motivations of Adams and Lahood. Spending years searching for a total stranger's dead body. Why? Why do we want to "know what happened" so badly? What is at stakes here? There is a movie like that - it's called The Vanishing. It's quite good.
What does it mean, fundamentally, when something is NOT where it is most likely to be (like Ewasko's body here, well outside of the most searched zone)? Or more generally when something - permanently - is NOT the way it is most likely to be? Does it mean our assessment of the likelyhoods was wrong?
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Trouble starts brewing when your adversary can predict what you are going to do before you, yourself, even know what you are going to do. Which, as luck would have it, is likely to be an increasingly common feeling in the AI-dominated world.