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(same anon from above who asked about the context of the 400/500 problem being an issue)
In response to GreedyAlgorithm who said:
Certainly finding out all of the facts that you can is good. But rationality has to
work no matter how many facts you have. If the only thing you know is that you have
Perhaps I am one of the "sentimentally irrational," but I would pick the 400 certain lives saved if it were a one-time choice, and the 500 @ 90% if it were an iterated choice I had to make over, and over again. In the long run, probabilities would take hold, and many more people would be saved. Bu...(read more)