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anonymous123456

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At what point will we know if Eliezer’s predictions are right or wrong?

Eliezer makes strong claims about AGI. I think they are interesting claims. For the sake of healthy epistemics, I am curious about preregistering some predictions. My question is: by what year will we know if Eliezer is right or wrong? In particular, by what year, if the Singularity hasn’t happened...

Jul 18, 2022•5

anonymous123456

anonymous123456 — LessWrong

anonymous123456

Message

At what point will we know if Eliezer’s predictions are right or wrong?

Jul 18, 2022•5

anonymous123456

At what point will we know if Eliezer’s predictions are right or wrong?

anonymous123456

Eliezer makes strong claims about AGI. I think they are interesting claims. For the sake of healthy epistemics, I am curious about preregistering some predictions.

My question is: by what year will we know if Eliezer is right or wrong? In particular, by what year, if the Singularity hasn’t happened yet, will we conclusively know that the imminent doom predictions were wrong?

I’m particularly interested in Eliezer’s answers to these questions.

Thank you! — a purveyor of good epistemics