What I see here is file-drawer problem. You remember all those times you felt right and ended up actually being right and conclude that you're right this time because you feel right. But you've ignored all those uncomfortable data points from when you felt right but ended up being wrong. A TED speaker once said something like: "What does it feel like to be wrong? It feels like being right, and it feels good. What feels bad is discovering that you were wrong after the fact."