Hey guys,

A concept I have been recently exploring is luck. My understanding of it has been inspired by Nassim Taleb, Naval Ravikant, James Austin, and Marc Andreessen. In general, I found that there is a sense of inner comfort knowing the role luck plays in life.

I thought I would share what I wrote here (note it is a copy and paste). I am curious as to whether 1) if you are familiar with the work of the people above, think I accurate captured their points and 2) in general curious to see if you agree. If you noticed any flaws or issues, please comment as I would like to update my thinking on it (and the blog post).

Hope you guys enjoy it and thanks for reading!

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Earlier this year, I wrote an essay on the role luck (or chance, randomness, etc.) plays in achieving success and wealth. The key insight was this: “Outcomes for many things in life are more influenced by randomness than we think. Said another way, we often confuse luck for skill, randomness for determinism, and coincidence for causality.”

To emphasize my earlier point, skill, hard work, intellect, and other positive personality traits matter. But they are necessary—not sufficient. They do not guarantee success. Luck clearly plays a role, especially in fields such as entrepreneurship and investing, where outcomes are impacted by random events.

But I wanted to revisit this topic because I had a lingering question in my head: Can we make our luck?

What Is Luck?

Before we can determine whether we can create luck, it is essential to define it. The best definition I have seen comes from James Austin, author of Chase, Chance, and Creativity. I was exposed to James Austin’s work through Marc Andreessen’s blog.

Austin defines luck as “something fortuitous that happens unpredictably without discernable human intention.” While this is a great definition, it requires some unpacking—especially the latter half.

Luck is fortuitous and unpredictable. We can’t time it, as we don’t know when or how it will present itself. This maps on to my experiences with luck. But it doesn’t mean we can’t influence luck.

This becomes clear when we examine the latter half of the definition: luck happens without discernable human intention. “Discernable” is the operative word. We might not be able to determine which specific actions or intentions caused luck. But a lack of evidence for causation is not evidence a...

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