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Wrong Tomorrow

Long Bets is an older, rather sparse variation that publicizes bets made between public figures:

An African Folktale

I would estimate the intended reaction to be: "Well I don't act like these despicable characters!" and then "Oh wait - maybe I have..". To me it seems like a tale of the bad we can do, when we aren't thinking about it. Or to put another way, the difficulty of making our behavior consistent with our morality. I see little evidence that the underlying morality is any different from the west.

An Especially Elegant Evpsych Experiment

to spare anyone the effort: I presume it's because they begin having children, and only future children are relevant.

An Especially Elegant Evpsych Experiment

Why does the curve descend pre-adolescence? Doesn't an average 18 year old have higher long-term reproductive potential than an 8 year old?

The Super Happy People (3/8)

Alright, so we are headed for some variety of golden rule\ mutual defense treaty imposed to respect each others' values simply because there is reason to believe, if not provable, that there exists some OTHER force in the universe more powerful than the ones currently signing the treaty. This of course does not void 'friendly' attempts to modify unwanted behaviors, which added together with a 'will to power', would likely have civilizations drifting towards a common position ultimately.

The Baby-Eating Aliens (1/8)

Great bouncing Bayesian Babyeater babies Batman!

OB Status Update

Sounds like a reasonable experiment. Nothing lasts forever. If Robin does indeed shut down, we've already lost the old OB. I suspect Eli wants a child that will actually grow up and leave the home. I predict the first sign of decay will be the upvoting of humor.

Rationality Quotes 25

..just saw the stat correction..

Rationality Quotes 25

Terrence McKenna was fond of saying essentially the same thing as Vaksel.

"1% occurrence, and 95% accuracy, a diagnostic test would yield only a 19% probability"

Isn't it ~16.1%? (95 1) / ((95 1) + (5 * 99))

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