LESSWRONG
LW

Aron
490600
Message
Dialogue
Subscribe

Posts

Sorted by New

Wikitag Contributions

Comments

Sorted by
Newest
No wikitag contributions to display.
Wrong Tomorrow
Aron16y10

Long Bets is an older, rather sparse variation that publicizes bets made between public figures: http://www.longbets.org/

Reply
An African Folktale
Aron16y20

I would estimate the intended reaction to be: "Well I don't act like these despicable characters!" and then "Oh wait - maybe I have..". To me it seems like a tale of the bad we can do, when we aren't thinking about it. Or to put another way, the difficulty of making our behavior consistent with our morality. I see little evidence that the underlying morality is any different from the west.

Reply
An Especially Elegant Evpsych Experiment
Aron16y00

to spare anyone the effort: I presume it's because they begin having children, and only future children are relevant.

Reply
An Especially Elegant Evpsych Experiment
Aron16y00

Why does the curve descend pre-adolescence? Doesn't an average 18 year old have higher long-term reproductive potential than an 8 year old?

Reply
The Super Happy People (3/8)
Aron16y00

Alright, so we are headed for some variety of golden rule\ mutual defense treaty imposed to respect each others' values simply because there is reason to believe, if not provable, that there exists some OTHER force in the universe more powerful than the ones currently signing the treaty. This of course does not void 'friendly' attempts to modify unwanted behaviors, which added together with a 'will to power', would likely have civilizations drifting towards a common position ultimately.

Reply
The Baby-Eating Aliens (1/8)
Aron16y20

Great bouncing Bayesian Babyeater babies Batman!

Reply
OB Status Update
Aron16y00

Sounds like a reasonable experiment. Nothing lasts forever. If Robin does indeed shut down, we've already lost the old OB. I suspect Eli wants a child that will actually grow up and leave the home. I predict the first sign of decay will be the upvoting of humor.

Reply
Rationality Quotes 25
Aron16y00

..just saw the stat correction..

Reply
Rationality Quotes 25
Aron16y00

Terrence McKenna was fond of saying essentially the same thing as Vaksel.

"1% occurrence, and 95% accuracy, a diagnostic test would yield only a 19% probability"

Isn't it ~16.1%? (95 1) / ((95 1) + (5 * 99))

Reply
Higher Purpose
[+]Aron16y-80
Load More
No posts to display.