• It commits a category error by calling a frequentist p-value calculation “Bayesian inversion,” which muddles two distinct inferential frameworks.
• It overstates trust in peer-review (“we can only trust articles in peer-reviewed journals”) and cites a paper to claim conspiracies are “mathematically impossible,” ignoring evidence from the reproducibility crisis showing peer review is insufficient on its own.
• It conflates basic logic with ZFC set theory and invents a “Mathematicity Hypothesis” as if this were scientific consensus; logic does not depend on ZFC, and this framing is idiosyncratic at best.
• The Socrates syllogism “anti-example” misfires: deductive validity isn’t established by experiment; experiments test the empirical premises, not the inference rule.
• The null-hypothesis section claims exact hypotheses have... (read more)
Hello!
We will gather for the first time after a while in Kyiv, Ukraine, both offline and online (two separate events; this one is offline).
Please RSVP before here: https://t.me/lwkyiv
Hello!
We will gather for the first time after a while, both online and offline (two separate events, this one is for online).
Please RSVP before here: https://t.me/lwkyiv
Can you please provide analysis where Ukraine side losses are 200k people and Russia side are 400k people?
The article's main idea is(can be?) that in all possible scenarios, the best one for Humanity is the loss of Putin's Empire.
It is hard to understand it without comparing it to the outcomes of all other scenarios. Because in each scenario after the start of a full-scale invasion, all scenarios are massive devastation for Humanity - we can choose only less devastation among all.
I think the idea is about the "Russian World". Putin and his elite used it almost always when trying to explain what they wanted to do. They always built their propaganda around "supreme russians" and other nations that "have no rights to exist".
We ended the voting about place and date and now place and time of meetup are final =)
Hello =)
I glad to announce the first meetup in Kyiv.
Our google group: https://groups.google.com/forum/?#!forum/lesswrong-kyiv
Please join it =)
We will meet in cafe "Жар Піца" underground at metro station "Дружби Народів"
at 08-02-2015 16:30:00
p.s. also you can found additional information about meeting in our google group.
Hello all =)
I am reading LW more that one year. I organized book club meetups about HPMOR in Kyiv, Ukraine in past (https://vk.com/hpmor_meeting and https://vk.com/efficient_reading5)
Now i start to organization process of first general LW meetup in Kyiv, our google group: http://groups.google.com/d/forum/LessWrong-Kyiv
On the first meet we will discuss Daniel Kahneman`s "Thinking, Fast and Slow" book in addition to what we will do in the future =)
Please, if you can - give any useful suggestions about what and how first meetup must be done (i have read LW pdf file about how to organize meetups).
The cult is back…
Someone makes a 1-day account, posts this, and then disappears for two years, ignoring all criticism. And then what? The cult leaders “listen” to your feelings just to push you into what they want again?
And now you’re back to using your 1-day accounts, trying to game the karma buttons?
I said I don’t want to have a conversation with a cult in a local group — same here. I’ve done my best to point out the most serious issues I can. I’m sure that right now we don’t have any formal definition of the Scientific Method, and the only way to be sure it works is by looking at results,... (read more)