This is very underrated newsletter, thank you for writing this. Events in KrioRus are kind of crazy. I cannot imagine a business where it is more essential to convince customers of robustness in the long run than cryonics and yet...ouch.
Also, Russia deployed lasers Peresvet which blind American satellites used to observe nuclear missiles.
I thought Peresvet is more of a tactical weapon?https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peresvet_(laser_weapon)
Are there any updates on nuclear powered missile, Burevestnik?
Even worse, that kind of move would just convince the competitors that AGI is far more feasible, and incentivize them to speed up their efforts while sacrificing safety.
If blocking Huwaei failed to work a couple of years ago with an unusually pugnacious American presidency, I doubt this kind of move would work in the future where the Chinese technological base would be probably stronger.
In a funny way, even if someone is stuck in a Goodhart trap doing Language Models it is probably better to Goodhart performance on Winograd Schemas than just adding parameters.
I am not an expert in ML but based on some conversations I was following, I heard WuDao's LAMBADA score (an important performance measure for Language Models) is significantly lower than GPT-3. I guess a number of parameters isn't everything.
Strong upvote for a healthy dose of bro humor which isn't that common on LW. We need more "people I want to have a beer with" represented in our community :D.
Thats interesting. Can you elaborate more?
None: None of the above; TAI is created probably in the USA and what Asia thinks isn't directly relevant. I say there's a 40% chance of this.
I would say it might still be relevant in this case. For example, given some game-theoretical interpretations, China might conclude that doing a nuclear first strike might be a rational move if the US creates the first TAI and suspects that will give their enemies an unbeatable advantage. Asian AI risk hub might successfully convince Chinese leadership to not do that if they have information that US TAI is built in a way that would prevent usage just for the interest of its country of origin.
Not sure about anti-gay laws in Singapore, but from what I gathered from the recent trends, the LGTB situation is starting to improve there and in East Asia in general. OTOH the anti-drug attitudes are still super strong (for example you can still get the death penalty for dealing harder drugs), therefore I presume it's an even bigger deal-breaker giving the number of people who are experimenting with drugs in the broader rationalist community.
Not to mention a pretty brutal Anti-Drug laws.
What would be the consequence of Belarus joining the western military alliance in terms of Russia's nuclear strategy? Let's say that in the near future Belarus joins NATO, and gives the US free hand in installing any offensive or defensive (ABM) Nuclear weapon system on Belarus territory. Would this dramatically increase the Russian fear of a successful nuclear first strike by the US?