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Still think it will be hard to defend against determined and competent adversaries committed to sabotaging the collective epistemic. I wonder if prediction markets can be utilised somehow? 

Answer by artemium61

I am not sure if dotcom 2000 market crash is the best way to describe a "fizzle". The upcoming Internet Revolution at the time was a correct hypothesis its just that 1999 startups were slightly ahead of time and tech fundamentals were not ready yet to support it, so market was forced to correct the expectations. Once the tech fundamentals (internet speeds, software stacks, web infrastructure, number of people online, online payments, online ad business models etc...) became ready in mid 2000s the Web 2.0 revolution happened and tech companies became giants we know today.

I expect most of the current AI startups and business models will fail and we will see plenty of market corrections, but this will be orthogonal to ground truth about AI discoveries that will happen only in a few cutting edge labs which will be shielded from temporary market corrections.

But coming back to the object level question: I really don't have a specific backup plan, I expect even the non-AGI level AI based on the advancement of the current models will significantly impact various industries so will stick to software engineering for forceable future.

My dark horse bet is on 3d country trying desperately to catch up to US/China just when they will be close to reaching agreement on slowing down progress. Most likely: France. 

Why so? My understanding is that, if AGI will arrives in 2026 it will be based on the current paradigm of training increasingly large LLMs on massive clusters of advanced GPUs. Given that US has banned selling advanced GPUs to China, how do you expect them to catch up that soon?

To add to this point, author in question is infamous for doxxing Scott Alexander and writing a hit piece on rationalist community before.



Also agree about not promoting political content on LW but would love to read your writings on some other platform if possible.

If it reaches that point, the goal for Russia would not be to win but to ensure another side loses too, and this outcome might be preferable (to them) to a humiliating conventional defeat that might permanently end Russian sovereignty. In the end, the West has far more to lose than Russia and the stakes aren't that high for us and they know it. 

No. I think everything else is in crappy shape cause the Nuclear arsenal was always a priority for the Russian defense industry and most of the money and resources went there. I've noticed that the meme "perhaps Russian nukes don't work" is getting increasingly popular which can have pretty bad consequences if the meme spreads and emboldens escalation.

It is like being incentivized to play Russian roulette because you hear bullets were made in a country that produced some other crappy products.

Looks awesome!  Maybe there could be extended UI that tracks the recent research papers (sorta like I did here) or SOTA achievements. But maybe that would ruin the smooth minimalism of the page. 

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