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The systematic reviews of randomized controlled trials also say that vegetables and fruits (and, generally, minimally processed whole plant foods) are good for reducing all-cause mortality and heart disease. It’s not just the cohort studies. (1, 2)
The large cohort studies are great because they have large sample sizes, look at people living in normal conditions, and look at the most important outcomes (all-cause mortality, heart disease) over long periods of time.
The randomized controlled trials are great because they address confounding, directly. They’re smaller, the controlled feeding studies usually look at people in unusual situations, like living in wards, and they look at shorter periods of time. But they address confounding, which is... (read 576 more words →)
I do not see what there is in a continued existence of 60-hour weeks that cannot be explained by the relative strength of the income and substitution effects. This doesn’t need to tell us about a poverty equilibrium, it can just tell us about people’s preferences?
I agree with most of this, but as a hardline libertarian take on AI risk it is incomplete since it addresses only how to slow down AI capabilities. Another thing you may want a government to do is speed up alignment, for example through government funding of R&D for hopefully safer whole brain emulation. Having arbitration firms, private security companies, and so on enforce proof of insurance (with prediction markets and whichever other economic tools seem appropriate to determine how to set that up) answers how to slow down AI capabilities but doesn’t answer how to fund alignment.
One libertarian take on how to speed up alignment is that
(1) speeding up alignment /... (read 582 more words →)
Either I am missing a point somewhere, or this probably doesn't work as well outside of textbook examples.
In the example, Frank was "blackmailed" into paying, because the builder knew that there were exactly 10 villagers, and knew that Frank needs the street paved. In real life, you often do not have this kind of knowledge.
Yes, you need to solve two problems (according to Tabarrok) to solve public goods provision, one of which is the free-rider problem. Dominant assurance contracts only solve the free-rider problem, but you need to also solve what he calls the information problem to know how to set the parameters of the contract.
Oh that’s fun, Wikipedia caused me to believe for so many years that “bad faith” means something different from what it means and I’m only learning that now.
Trillions of dollars in lost economic growth just seems like hyperbole. There’s some lost growth from stickiness and unemployment but of course the costs aren’t trillions of dollars.
They did in fact not go far enough. Japanese GNI per capita growth from 2013 to 2021 was 1.02%. The prescription would be something like 4%.
I disagree total working hours have decreased. The number of average weekly hours per person from 1950 to 2000 has been “roughly constant”. Work weeks are shorter but there are more people working.
As an example to explain why, I predict (with 80% probability) that there will be a five-year shortening in the median on the general AI question at some point in the next three years. And I also predict (with 85% probability) that there will be a five-year lengthening at some point in the next three years.
Both of these things have happened. The community prediction was June 28, 2036 at one time in July 2022, July 30, 2043 in September 2022 and is March 13, 2038 now. So there has been a five-year shortening and a five-year lengthening.
For binary contract markets, when the midpoint between the bid and the ask is less than 0.1 or greater than 0.9, you need to have orders both above and under it to earn daily liquidity rewards. This creates an incentive to place bid orders even if you think the market cannot resolve positive.