The Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to some anxiety about possible escalation, especially given Putin's use of nuclear weapons as a threat. This shows in some topics here on lesswrong, too. And I find this anxiety in myself, as well, sometimes wondering what I would do, if there was...
Europe is about to introduce stronger economic sanctions against Russia. Given Putin's past behavior I think it is likely that there will be Russian countersanctions. The most relevant could be cutting off of gas for Europe. In the long run this would be self defeating because it accelerates energy independence...
The following two charts have been on my mind quite intensively for some time and have had a relatively strong influence on my thinking about dangers for the future development of the financial markets in recent months: 1. Shiller CAPE An interesting measure of stock market valuation from my perspective...
In the U.S, male adolescents die by suicide at a rate five times greater than that of female adolescents, although suicide attempts by females are three times as frequent as those by males. A possible reason for this is the method of attempted suicide for males is typically that of firearm use, with a 78–90% chance of fatality.
The quoted possible reason of more attempted firearm use by male adolescents committing suicide can only be a partial explanation.
Looking at the German figures (where firearms are not widely available) from 2021, absolute numbers of suicides:
under 15: m 12, w 15
15-19: m 118, w 44
20-24: m 223, w 83
25-29: m 268, w 58
and from then on about a 3:1 ratio more or less across the age groups.
One could use a shared bank account to which both partners contribute the same percentage of their income.
Another thing that could be interesting with spies is what they can do before a US/NATO-Russian war. If the Russian had one or more top level spies in the US security establishment or in NATO (as they, or their East German satellite, had during the cold war), then it could increase or decrease the risk of Russia using nuclear weapons.
If Russia got signals from inside US/NATO that the West was really willing to retaliate militarily in the case of a Russian nuclear strike on Ukraine, then this information could decrease Russia's willingness to escalate. If, however, Russia got signals from inside US/NATO that the West was not willing to use military force as an answer to a Russian nuclear strike on Ukraine, then this information could increase Russia's will to escalate.
From the current numbers (-3 and -4) your post does not seem to be heavily downvoted. I believe there may be some users here who see any arguments for a smaller threat as dangerous. As long as there are not many upvotes, even a very small number of users with this attitude could lead to those numbers. We have seen a similar dynamic with the public health authorities during the Covid crisis (prioritizing message control over epistemic rationality).
And as a good rationalist he explicitly asked:
I'd love to hear your thoughts both on this risk modeling framework and on the factor probabilities (30%, 80%, 70%) listed in the figure!
My estimate is quite high (80%) that NATO's response will be forceful enough to include a non-nuclear military strike against Russia, because key NATO leaders have already made strongly worded statements to this effect.
Here, my estimate is much lower (about 25%). Talk is cheap, so strongly worded statements in itself are only weak evidence for future intentions if carrying out those threats poses threats on this level (and I do think it to be likely that the relevant players in NATO are aware of the level of risk).
...or it might escalate with a Russian nuclear strike against Ukraine followed by NATO counterattacks against Russia...
That is possible. But I think it is important not to treat this as one scenario in your list of possible escalations but as two:
I believe that P(scenario 1) >> P(scenario 2). NATO knows about the nuclear capabilities of Russia. Therefore attacks of NATO on Russia seem to me extremely unlikely, given the history of the Cold War.
Unless, of course, NATO (or the US unilaterally) extends its deterrence on the Ukraine (e.g., by taking Ukraine into NATO; however there won't be the... (read more)
Given that 335 users with 300+ karma were active on the site on Petrov Day, and the site didn't go down until we got beneath that, you could argue this is most successful Petrov Day yet on LessWrong (in past years, at most 250 people were given codes, and it's not clear they all visited LessWrong even). Plus, as above, this year the 300+ users didn't press the button despite the offer of anonymity.
I think that reasoning apllies only for the subset of users in the Americas. For users in Europe the time point when 300+ was enough to launch was deep in the night, and for parts of Asia very early in the morning. Someone from that group would have had to set the alarm to get up from bed to nuke the site which required considerable more energy than not withstanding the temptation and pressing the launch button while visiting Less Wrong during the day.
Still, I think it was a successful Petrov Day.
1. Make sure to have a good sleeping bag that is suitable for colder temperatures.
2. Prepare for power outages. I believe in most countries there are official agencies providing advice for such a situation (e.g., in the case of Germany: Bundesamt für Bevölkerungsschutz und Katastrophenhilfe)
3. Maybe get a dehumidifier (for situations with reduced heating but still with electricity) in order to prevent mould with reduced temperature.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to some anxiety about possible escalation, especially given Putin's use of nuclear weapons as a threat. This shows in some topics here on lesswrong, too. And I find this anxiety in myself, as well, sometimes wondering what I would do, if there was suddenly an extremely bright flash of light.
And I think there is a real basis for this risk, given Putin's rationality is somewhat doubtful at the moment, and the fog of war can lead to all kinds of unexpected and unwanted outcomes.
But thinking about it for some days I believe there could be some negativity bias (in ourselves, and definitely in media reporting)... (read 309 more words →)
Europe is about to introduce stronger economic sanctions against Russia. Given Putin's past behavior I think it is likely that there will be Russian countersanctions.
The most relevant could be cutting off of gas for Europe. In the long run this
would be self defeating because it accelerates energy independence from Russia.
But nevertheless I think this is quite possible (est. prob: 25%). If this would come at the same time as below average temperatures in March and April in countries heavily depending on natural gas for heating (e.g. in Germany > 50% if you include district heating), then many households could find themselves temporarily without heating (est. prob: 10%). Of course, that is nothing... (read more)
The following two charts have been on my mind quite intensively for some time and have had a relatively strong influence on my thinking about dangers for the future development of the financial markets in recent months:
1. Shiller CAPE
An interesting measure of stock market valuation from my perspective is Shiller's CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio). Basically, it is just a price-earnings ratio, but using adjusted earnings over the last 10 years to smooth out the normal cyclical fluctuations.
Source: multpl.com
Admittedly, it is not yet possible to tell from it that valuations and thus share prices will soon be heading downward. But the risk of a crash seems evident to me.
The only time valuations... (read 500 more words →)
Spreading cash over multiple banks within the deposit insurance limits is an interesting business concept. In Germany (with a deposit insurance limit of 100,000 Euros per customer and bank) a large robo advisor, LIQID, had such a service (I think since 2020 or so), called LIQID Cash.
However, currently they don't provide this service anymore (but they are saying there service will be back "soon"), so there seem to be some nontrivial problems with doing something like that, even for an established player with more than a billion Euros under management.