*1969, studied business administration, 20 years hospital management, currently studying psychology


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How should I behave ≥14 days after my first mRNA vaccine dose but before my second dose?

Maybe figure 1 of this article: Antibody Responses in Seropositive Persons after a Single Dose of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA Vaccine could be helpful. I think relevant are the blue dots (for persons seronegative before the first vaccine).

Since the antibody reaction is on a log scale I would be more confident after 28 days than after 14 days based on that graph. But the n for the different time ranges (days after vaccine) are much too small to be sure, of course (and I am not a medical expert).

Forcing yourself to keep your identity small is self-harm

I agree that "Keep your identity small" is too general as advice. But the problem Graham has adressed regarding identity is an important one.

So I would propose:

  1. Keep you political identity small. Because as soon as you strongly identify with a specific political group your ability to see reality relatively clearly can be greatly diminished, because politics has opinions about a great amount and variety of topics.

  2. Know your identities and try to realize that you opinions about the world in those areas that are relevant for you identities can be much more biased than in other areas.

  3. Try to have multiple social identities / group memberships because of their protective effects (e.g. Haslam et al., 2008; Iyer et al., 2009).

Why We Launched LessWrong.SubStack

Is this move permanent or just for the short term? Because your main expense should become quite cheap in the future due to a changing supply side.

The best things are often free or cheap

I really like the content of the post, but disagree with its title. I believe a better title would have been:

"Great things are often free or cheap".

Some examples for better things for that list have been mentioned by other comments. But there is a deeper reason I think the title is quite problematic:

Looking for "the best" seems to me a losing strategy when it comes to quality of life. There is (almost) always something or somewhere else that is better but out of your reach for several reasons (money, distance, time, etc.). If you look for that your experience will be contrasted with a hypothetically even better one, devaluing your own experience.

So, I believe we should not look for "the best", but we definitely should look for "great", for experiences that truly enrich our life and, as you rightfully pointed out, in many cases are cheap and easily accessible if we only start looking for them.

AstraZeneca COVID Vaccine and blood clots

Yes, that was the main argument for the decision of the PEI - the risk for a group that does not profit as much from a vaccine as older people.

If I had to guess:

  1. The women had taken oral contraceptives.
  2. Maybe this group will be excluded from this specific vaccine in the future.

(But it is just a guess, I am no expert).

Here additional background information from the German PEI (translation by deepl):

"In seven cases (as of 03/15/2021), a specific form of severe cerebral venous thrombosis associated with platelet deficiency (thrombocytopenia) and bleeding has been identified in temporal association with vaccination with AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine.

It is a very serious disease that is also difficult to treat. Of the seven affected individuals, three had died.

The affected individuals had ages ranging from about 20 to 50 years.

Six of the affected individuals had a particular form of cerebral venous thrombosis, namely sinus vein thrombosis. All six individuals were younger to middle-aged women (see above). Another case with cerebral hemorrhage in platelet deficiency and thrombosis was medically very comparable. All cases occurred between four and 16 days after vaccination with AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine. This presented as a comparable pattern.

The number of these cases after AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccination is statistically significantly higher than the number of cerebral venous thromboses that normally occur in the unvaccinated population. For this purpose, an observed-versus-expected analysis was performed, comparing the number of cases expected without vaccination in a 14-day time window with the number of cases reported after approximately 1.6 million AstraZeneca vaccinations in Germany. About one case would have been expected, and seven cases had been reported.

The younger to middle-aged group of people affected by the severe cerebral venous thromboses with platelet deficiency is not the group of people at high risk for a severe or even fatal COVID-19 course.

In addition to the experts from the Paul Ehrlich Institute, other experts in thrombosis, hematology, and an adenovirus specialist were consulted with the details of the reported cases. All experts were unanimous in their opinion that a pattern could be discerned here and that a connection between the reported above-mentioned diseases and the AstraZeneca vaccination was not implausible.

After an overall review and consideration of the above facts, the Paul Ehrlich Institute recommended that vaccination with the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine be suspended in Germany as a precautionary measure in order to further analyze the cases. The German Federal Ministry of Health (BMG) has followed this recommendation. The Pharmacovigilance Risk Assessment Committee (PRAC) at the European Medicines Agency (EMA) will review during the week of March 15, 2021, whether and how the new findings affect the benefit-risk profile of the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine and the EU approval of the vaccine."

Source: PEI

AstraZeneca COVID Vaccine and blood clots

Today's statement by the Paul-Ehrlich-Institut (PEI), Germany's vaccine and pharmaceutical regulatory agency (translation by deepl, emphasis in the quote is mine)

"The Paul Ehrlich Institute informs - Temporary suspension of vaccination with COVID-19 vaccine AstraZeneca

Following intensive consultations on the serious thrombotic events that have occurred in Germany and Europe, the Paul Ehrlich Institute recommends the temporary suspension of vaccinations with the COVID-19 vaccine AstraZeneca.

Compared to the status on March 11, 2021, additional cases (as of Monday, March 15, 2021) have now been reported in Germany. Analyzing the new data status, the experts of the Paul Ehrlich Institute now see a striking accumulation of a special form of very rare cerebral venous thrombosis (sinus vein thrombosis) in connection with a deficiency of blood platelets (thrombocytopenia) and bleeding in temporal proximity to vaccinations with the COVID-19 vaccine AstraZeneca.

The data are being further analyzed and evaluated by the European Medicines Agency (EMA).

Vaccinations with AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine in Germany will be suspended until the EMA's evaluation is complete. Today's decision affects both initial and follow-up vaccinations.

The Paul Ehrlich Institute advises that individuals who have received AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine and feel increasingly unwell more than four days after vaccination - for example, with severe and persistent headache or pinpoint bleeding of the skin - should seek medical treatment immediately." PEI

AstraZeneca COVID Vaccine and blood clots

My prior would be that there probably is no blood clot problem. With the HPV vaccine there were the same fears and a large study showed that this was not the case (source: NPR ).

Blood clots are a somewhat common problem, see e.g. Data and Statistics on Venous Thromboembolism so cases of that are to be expected.

Of course, it is possible that this time it is different and of course, it should be investigated. However, I think that the probability is high that stopping using this vaccine while investigating will kill much more people than its continuous use.

Edit: Having thought about it a little bit longer, I am not so sure anymore about the last paragraph above. Because there is a second order risk: that the unlikely, I believe, case is true that the vaccine causes dangerous blood clots, but the public is told to get vaccinated anyway - possibly leading to a major loss of confidence in all vaccines once this is clear, and by reducing vaccination rates killing many, many more people than the blood clots.

Are there good negotiation classes?

For me some of the lecture notes from the MIT OCW course "Power and Negotiation" were quite helpful. However, that mostly applied to contract negotations - as others here have remarked, for the internal workings of a company those negotiation skills are much less relevant. For that I would rather look into diplomatic skills, dealing with conflicts etc.

Covid 1/21: Turning the Corner

I feel like restaurants suing so they can have indoor dining says something bad about America. European restaurants just don't do that, so restrictions don't need to be lawsuit-proof.

Not all of Europe's restaurants don't do that. In Germany there have been in most states lawsuits against Covid restrictions of all types, e.g. against restaurant closures.

Covid: The Question of Immunity From Infection

That doesn't look good. However, it could be less bad than it looks because of their matching criteria (Supplementary Table 1) not really assessing the severity of different types of prior health issues but their existence only (probably because that is what they had access to for such a large sample), e.g. "history of diabetes: Yes/No".

I think that a latent health status with a high probability of having complications (leading to a hospital stay) if contracting COVID-19 is also linked to a higher probability of a hospital stay or death in the following months even without contracting COVID-19. Hard to tell how much one should correct down the results of the study for deaths and hospital admissions based on that (but I believe there still remains a substantial negative long term impact by the infection with COVID-19).

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