For this month's meetup, in the interest of self-improvement, we will be making new year's resolutions, and in the interest of epistemics, we're going to be predicting how likely each other are to succeed at our resolutions.
Sharing new year's resolutions is strictly optional, and if you choose to share them, having people predict how likely you are to succeed is also optional.
There aren't any activities currently planned for that date range, but we're always eager to meet visiting rationalists so maybe you could stop by.
What if weight were capped at 1?
If you're in a conversation at a party and there is another conversation next to you, how does that affect...
... your ability to follow the conversation you're in
... your enjoyment of the party
How likely are you to switch conversations?
No. The Ottoman Empire started in 1299. Islam, and various very powerful caliphates, had existed for centuries before that.
The Qur'an wasn't written down until a while after Muhammad's death, by which time there was an incentive for leaders to edit it for their own benefit.
See also Emperor Constantine I's efforts to quash dissent within the Christian community in order to make it more politically unified.
Because I think it would be useful to be able to weigh in explicitly on each option rather than just pick a favorite:
I'm curious - what have you outsourced to Fancy Hands? I know in theory that I should be outsourcing stuff to services like that, but I really don't know what stuff I can effectively outsource in practice.
This could also be a metaphor for politicians, or depending on your worldview, marketing-heavy businesses. Or religions.
I interpreted "fullscreened" to mean "maximized", though I'm not totally sure whether that was the intent.