b1shop

In my experience, women enjoy the idea of coming first.

It's a style guide. It's supposed to be ruthlessly dictatorial. I wrote it for myself and co-workers. Some local Less Wrongers enjoyed it and encouraged me to post, so I did. I thought it would be appreciated. Oh well.

Replying toWhy the tails come apart

b1shop12y

Why the tails come apart

Statistical point: the variance of forecast error for correctly specified simple regression problems is equal to:

Sigma^2(1 + 1/N + (x_o - x_mean)^2 / (Sigma ( x_i - x_mean) ^2))

So forecast error increases as x_o moves away from x_mean, especially when the variance of x is low by comparison.

Edit: Sub notation was apparently indenting things. I'm going to take a picture from my stats book tonight. Should be more readable.

Edit: Here's a more readable link. http://i.imgur.com/pu8lg0Wh.jpg

Replying toTotal Utility is Illusionary

b1shop12y

Total Utility is Illusionary

"Instead, every time you arrive at a decision point, evaluate what action to take by checking the utility of your constituents from each action. I propose that we call this "delta utilitarianism", because it isn't looking at the total or the average, just at the delta in utility from each action."

Perhaps we could call it "marginal utility."

Replying toMeetup : Houston, TX

b1shop12y

Meetup : Houston, TX

All, Isaac_Davis, dvasya and myself had a pleasant chat at Ikea. Looking forward to the next meetup. Hopefully we'll have enough people next time to play paranoid debating.

Replying toMeetup : Houston, TX

b1shop12y

Meetup : Houston, TX

Unless I'm missing something, it hasn't occurred yet.

Replying toMeetup : Houston, TX

b1shop12y

Meetup : Houston, TX

I'll likely be there. Looking forward to it.

Replying toTell Culture

b1shop12y

Tell Culture

I'm not sure that's true. From the original LW post on ask vs. guess:

Apparently East Asia is more "guess-based" than the US.

I've also heard that Russia is more ask-based, and the U.S. is somewhere in the middle with stereotypical differences between urban and rural environments.

Replying toTell Culture

b1shop12y

Tell Culture

A lot of the comments are ignoring the fact that this game has multiple equilibria. Saying "humans evolved into X, so therefore there must be a logic to X" makes as much sense as saying "Americans drive on the right side of the road, so therefore there must be a logic to using the right side of the road."

Also, when traveling outside the monastery, our first priority should be to figure out how the other people drive.

Replying toTell Culture

b1shop12y

Tell Culture

If you’re occasionally dishonest and tell people you want things you don't actually care about--like their comfort or convenience--they’ll learn not to trust you, and the inherent freedom of the system will be lost.

Maybe I'm only thinking of trivial examples, but I haven't noticed this. If I have guests over at my house, of course I care about their convenience, as I want the social capital that comes with throwing a good party. I want my co-workers slaving at the same project as me to be comfortable as it will make them more productive. There are tons of truly selfish reasons to be superficially selfless, and I don't think most have an aversion to superficial selflessness.

Perhaps a major exception should be made for early-stage romantic interactions.

The Virtue of Compartmentalization

b1shop

13y

Cross posted from my blog, Selfish Meme.

I’d like to humbly propose a new virtue to add to Eliezer’s virtues of rationality — the virtue of Compartmentalization. Like the Aristoteian virtues, the virtue of Compartmentalization is a golden mean. Learning the appropriate amount of Compartmentalization, like learning the appropriate amount of bravery, is a life-long challenge.

Learning how to program is both learning the words to which computers listen and training yourself to think about complex problems. Learning to comfortably move between levels of abstraction is an important part of the second challenge.

Large programs are composed of multiple modules. Each module is composed of lines of code. Each line of code is composed of... (read 636 more words →)

Gambler's Reward: Optimal Betting Size

b1shop

14y

I've been trying my hand at card counting lately, and I've been doing some thinking about how a perfect gambler would act at the table. I'm not sure how to derive the optimal bet size.

Overall, the expected value of blackjack is small and negative. However, there is high variance in the expected value. By varying his bet size and sitting out rounds, the player can wager more money when expected value is higher and less money when expected value is lower. Overall, this can result in an edge.

However, I'm not sure what the optimal bet size is. Going all-in with a 60 percent chance of winning is EV+, but the 40 percent... (read more)

(Possibly Bayesian) Statistics Question

b1shop

15y

This question exists in the awkward space between "things undergrads google for homework" and "things on the cutting edge," so google isn't being super helpful.

I have a number I want a computer to estimate. Right now I have two regression models and an insider methodology. The former can be used to create two normal curves. The latter creates a point estimate only, but I can back into a confidence interval/normal curve with an acceptable amount of arbitrary hand-waving. If necessary, this could be conceived of as a prior.

How can I automatically weight the three curves into a single point estimate? I vaguely remember something from an econometrics class about weighting forecasts in... (read more)

Consulting Opportunity for Budding Econometricians

b1shop

15y

As a part of my job, I recently created an econometric model. My boss wants someone to look over the math before its submitted internally throughout the company. We have a modest amount of money set aside for someone to audit the process.

The model is an ARMA(2,1) with seasonality, trend, and a dummy variable. There's no heteroscedasticity or serial correlation, but the Ramsey Reset test suggests a more different model might work better.

I currently have the data in an eviews file, so you'd need to do zero data entry.

There's a small chance this will be used in court, but none of the liability will be transferred to you. There should be an emphasis placed on parsimony. You'd have to sign a confidentiality agreement.

If you're qualified to review this/suggest a marginally better model, then this would be an easy way for you to make bank in a couple hours time. If it goes well, there might be more work like this in the future.

Let me know if you're interested.

[Draft] Holy Bayesian Multiverse, Batman!

b1shop

15y

I couldn't find the math for the quantum suicide and immortality thought experiment, so I'm placing it here for posterity. If one actually ran the experiment, Bayes' theorem would tell us how to update our belief in the multi-world interpretation (MWI) of quantum mechanics. I conclude by arguing that we don't need to run the experiment.

Prereqs: Understand the purpose of Bayes Theorem, possess at least rudimentary knowledge of the competing quantum worldviews, and have a nostalgic appreciation for Adam West.

The Fiendish Setup:

Suppose that, after catching Batman snooping in the shadows of his evil lair, Joker ties the caped crusader into a quantum, negative binomial death machine that, every ten seconds, measures the spin value... (read 468 more words →)

The Meaning of Life

b1shop

15y

Fifteen thousand years ago, our ancestors bred dogs to serve man. In merely 150 centuries, we shaped collies to herd our sheep and pekingese to sit in our emperor's sleeves. Wild wolves can't understand us, but we teach their domesticated counterparts tricks for fun. And, most importantly of all, dogs get emotional pleasure out of serving their master. When my family's terrier runs to the kennel, she does so with blissful, self-reinforcing obedience.

When I hear amateur philosophers ponder the meaning of life, I worry humans suffer from the same embarrassing shortcoming.

It's not enough to find a meaningful cause. These monkeys want to look in the stars and see their lives' purpose described in explicit... (read 413 more words →)

110

LESSWRONG
LW

LESSWRONG
LW

Consulting Opportunity for Budding Econometricians

The Meaning of Life

Gambler's Reward: Optimal Betting Size

The Virtue of Compartmentalization

b1shop

b1shop

The Virtue of Compartmentalization

Gambler's Reward: Optimal Betting Size

(Possibly Bayesian) Statistics Question

Consulting Opportunity for Budding Econometricians

[Draft] Holy Bayesian Multiverse, Batman!

The Meaning of Life

b1shop

Consulting Opportunity for Budding Econometricians

The Meaning of Life

Gambler's Reward: Optimal Betting Size

The Virtue of Compartmentalization

b1shop

b1shop

The Virtue of Compartmentalization

Gambler's Reward: Optimal Betting Size

(Possibly Bayesian) Statistics Question

Consulting Opportunity for Budding Econometricians

[Draft] Holy Bayesian Multiverse, Batman!

The Meaning of Life

The Fiendish Setup: