This is going to be a short post. OpenAI recently announced ChatGPT Plugins which will allow any developer to connect ChatGPT to external APIs and potentially real-world actions. Even if GPT-4 is not yet capable of destroying civilization, we are entering a world where LLMs are heavily integrated into everything we build, and take actions on their own. Any outage will be economically unacceptable, and there is no way back. It could take only the next few iterations of the language model, and the right feedback loop through some combination of plugins, to yield a catastrophe-capable agent.
I hope us rationalists still have an emotional part, so let me appeal to it. Do not give up. This post isn't meant to discourage. I don't know what we are going to do in this new world, but I'm ready for the fight.
I think that as AI tools become more useful, working in an air gapped network is going to require a larger compromise in productivity. Maybe AI labs are the exception here as they can deploy their own products in the air gapped network, but that depends on how much of the productivity gains they can replicate using their own products. i.e. an Anthropic employee might not be able to use Cursor unless Anthropic signs a deal with Cursor to deploy it inside the network. Now do this with 10 more products, this requires infrastructure and compute that might be just too much of a hassle for the company.