"It might make sense to ignore evidence that you are likely to fail if it is a competitive situation and the evidence comes from a rival who is likely to gain if you give up.
As far as Casey Serin was concerned, that didn't apply. The evidence came from a bank that stood to gain if he succeeded."
There may be a version of Casey out there that suceeded, because he gambled one year earlier than Casey. If Casey had pulled this off, he would have been considered a real estate genius.
Chance plays a large role.