Bernie B


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Covid-19 Points of Leverage, Travel Bans and Eradication

How much of this changes if you choose to use smaller units than the entire United States? Right now, the North East is really bad, but the Mid-west is in great shape. What about even smaller, NY is in a dire situation, but Maine is fine. If you zoom in even more, NYC is a train wreck, but with the exception of two counties, upstate and western NY are fine.

If a travel ban in/out of NYC were strictly enforced, would they emerge from this in a few weeks with effective herd immunity and the virus unable to spread further there?

All the analysis I read keeps assuming the US is the base unit when calculating total infected or ICU capacity. I think it would change the calculations significantly if you add a time distribution, where it would be possible for places without rapid spread like Maine, Montana, and other low case areas were to send Medical personnel and equipment to NYC for a few weeks, then as the NYC cases pass the peak, those resources move to the next hot spot. Does this reduced population (just NYC), combined with more ICU/Ventilators, keep it below the healthcare system is overrun (much better ratio of ICU availability per person)?