How much of this changes if you choose to use smaller units than the entire United States? Right now, the North East is really bad, but the Mid-west is in great shape. What about even smaller, NY is in a dire situation, but Maine is fine. If you zoom in even more, NYC is a train wreck, but with the exception of two counties, upstate and western NY are fine.
If a travel ban in/out of NYC were strictly enforced, would they emerge from this in a few weeks with effective herd immunity and the virus unable to spread further there?
All the analysis I read keeps assuming the US is the base unit when calculating total infected or ICU capacity. I think it would change the calculations significantly if you add a time distribution, where it would be possible for places without rapid spread like Maine, Montana, and other low case areas were to send Medical personnel and equipment to NYC for a few weeks, then as the NYC cases pass the peak, those resources move to the next hot spot. Does this reduced population (just NYC), combined with more ICU/Ventilators, keep it below the healthcare system is overrun (much better ratio of ICU availability per person)?