BindingLoop

Richard is saying that in the hypothetical world in which AGI was proven to be hypothetically impossible or something of that nature, the cluster of people who can be referred as belonging to the rationalist - EA^[1] set would be trying to solve aging and perfecting cryonics, whereas the cluster of people in the EA - rationalist set would be into global health and ending factory farming.

You had a (critique?) of rationalists in that they didn't have motive force or coordination capacity to do much beyond AI safety, but Richard is saying that's because AI safety took all the talent of the rationalist movement. If AI never existed, obviously, those rationalists would be... (read more)

What is your opinion on the recent developments of LLMs? I feel the last 9 months since your comment was made have shown they are not slowing down. I don't think the recent METR evals show a superexponential growth, as the tasks are saturated at the high end (80% success is more in line with my model of reality), but they are still on the post-2024 higher exponential with the introduction of reasoning models. My not-super-expert knowledge is that they're still massively scaling up and that represents the majority of the improvements, though not discounting improved algorithmic efficiency.
 

One of my main near-term concerns right now is that they get good at certain... (read more)