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What is an appropriate sample size when surveying billions of data points?
Answer by BlakeAug 23, 202430

FWIW, here is the best survey of ideas on sample size I found: https://cadcommunity.pbworks.com/f/what%20sample%20size.pdf

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Rats, Back a Candidate
Blake1y1-1
  • I believe that because over 200 people RSVPed for the event, unlike anything else we’ve done. This even eclipses our AI event.

  • We’re going to focus on action and reasons for backing Harris vs “rah rah” hype making.

  • The open conversation is how to get a candidate elected.

  • Most people back a candidate like they back a sports team. They don’t have reasons. We’ll work toward reasons.

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Rats, Back a Candidate
Blake1y32

I hope you can get political with EU rats.

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Rats, Back a Candidate
Blake1y10

The idea is that we don’t need to say “Harris is great” because everyone already thinks that if they’re coming. We are only focusing on motivating metrically-defined outcome oriented actions. It’s a game. “Who can get the most votes for Harris?” Different teams will focus on different actions. Post card writing. Fundraising. Voter registration. We’ll optimize and learn.

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Rats, Back a Candidate
Blake1y10

My life is rooted in a desire to optimize. That’s what I get out of rationalism. Optimization strategies. Politics is new for me. I’m curious to see how the rationalist lens that I’ve used to optimize most aspects of my life (who I married, the job I’ve chosen, ..) can be applied in the political sphere. This is my naive attempt. I will optimize.

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Rats, Back a Candidate
Blake1y10

Why isn’t it? Our people form tribes over shared intellectual interests like others form tribes over shared affinity for a sports team.

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Rats, Back a Candidate
Blake1y10

Ah, yes. I meant I am not publicly tying a Rat brand to our event. There is no mention of rationality on the DNC event page.

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Rats, Back a Candidate
Blake1y10

Most people who attend our meetings just want to find folks who share their interests. That is the tribalistic impulse I'm referencing.

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Rats, Back a Candidate
Blake1y-3-4

Agreed. I don’t think I’m tying our event with the LW or Rat brand. I am simply saying more rats need to support a candidate.

This is a local event in which I will push my anti-tribalism agenda. My bet is many who attend are not interested in being tribalistic. Myself and those I know who are behind Kamala are largely behind her because we appreciate evidence-based thinking, which Donald Trump has worked against.

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Rats, Back a Candidate
Blake1y20

Are you saying we shouldn’t even attempt to turn tribalistic thinkers into evidence based thinkers? My own experience at that has been rather successful.

Our New Orleans Rat group grows on tribalistic calls to action. “Donate to Global Health Initiatives,” “Do Art,” “Learn About AI.” At the events we tend to question the foundation of having those interests, working to better stances on the interests we keep or reject.

Example: We led a multipart series on EA for people who were already interested in EA. The series was led by someone who was very much an EA. The group mostly questioned why that person was an EA. The result: We continue to support several causes, such as Farm Animal Welfare, and ignore other causes, such as AI Doom, that didn’t seem to have enough evidence we found compelling.

Very few people I meet actually want to be limited by the scope of a tribe. Desire for autonomy prevails and the group gains deeper investment as we promote evidence-based thinking. I’m not dumb to the fact that this process is creating new tribalistic dynamics, but hopefully we have better reasons for why we do what we do.

I will probably open our Kamala Harris event with the question: “Why support a candidate?” I will also use this event as motivation to look into pros and cons with supporting a candidate, then use future events as a way to validate that evidence I’ve found.

Please post any research around supporting a candidate I should look at!

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