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It seems to me that a good model of the great recession should include as its predictions that male employment would be particularly hard-hit even among recessions (see https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AofUzoVzQEE5dFo3dlo4Ui1zbU5kZ2ZENGo4UGRKbFE#gid=0). I think this probably favors ZMP (...(read more)

Or until the supply of low-skill workers depress the remaining low-skill wage beneath minimum wage/outsourcing. I think that we are eliminating a larger proportion of low-skill jobs per year than we ever have before, but I agree that the retraining and regulation issues you pointed out are significa...(read more)

Yeah, exactly. Especially if you take Cowen's view that science requires increasing marginal effort.

"There's a thesis (whose most notable proponent I know is Peter Thiel, though this is not exactly how Thiel phrases it) that real, material technological change has been dying."

Tyler Cowen is again relevant here with his http://www.amazon.com/The-Great-Stagnation-Low-Hanging-ebook/dp/B004H0M8QS , ...(read more)

The quine requirement seems to me to introduce non-productive complexity. If file reading is disallowed, why not just pass the program its own source code as well as its opponent's?

I think Eliezer's "We have never interacted with the paperclip maximizer before, and will never interact with it again" was intended to preclude credible binding.

I'll reply two years later: [Light drinking during pregnancy is associated with children with fewer behavioral and cognitive problems.](http://www.bakadesuyo.com/do-pregnant-women-who-drink-alcohol-have-smar) This is probably a result of the correlation between moderate alcohol consumption and [iq](...(read more)

Steven Brams has devised some fair division algorithms that don't require good will: see his surplus procedure ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surplus_procedure ) and his earlier adjusted winner procedure ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adjusted_Winner_procedure ).

I just read the RSS feed for a Yudkowsky fix since he left Overcoming Bias.