"I plan to go back to posting about plain old rationality on Monday."
You praise Bayes highly and frequently. Yet you haven't posted a commensurate amount of material on Bayesian theory. I've read the Intuitive and Technical Explanation essays, and they made me think that you could write a really superb series on Bayesian theory.
Philosophers have written lots on a priori arguments for Bayesianism (e.g. Cox's Theorem, Dutch Book Arguments, etc.). I'm more curious about the fruitfulness of Bayesianism: e.g. what issues it clarifies and what interesting questions it brings to light. Here are some more specific questions:
What are some of the insights you've gained from Pearl's work on causal graphs and counterfactuals?
"I plan to go back to posting about plain old rationality on Monday."
You praise Bayes highly and frequently. Yet you haven't posted a commensurate amount of material on Bayesian theory. I've read the Intuitive and Technical Explanation essays, and they made me think that you could write a really superb series on Bayesian theory.
Philosophers have written lots on a priori arguments for Bayesianism (e.g. Cox's Theorem, Dutch Book Arguments, etc.). I'm more curious about the fruitfulness of Bayesianism: e.g. what issues it clarifies and what interesting questions it brings to light. Here are some more specific questions:
... (read more)What are some of the insights you've gained from Pearl's work on causal graphs and counterfactuals?