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The bet has been lost. The merge wasn't allowed. https://archive.ph/MDYWF
The share price of Spirit Airlines (NYSE: save) dropped to 50%.
I consider it unlikely that my interactions with ChatGPT 3.5 (that led to my original post) played a significant role as training data that helped make ChatGPT 4 so much better.
Why do you consider it unlikely?
If I was good at memorization (model parameter size) but bad at reasoning then your original post showing up in my training data would help me.
I'm also curious how much of the improvement comes from improvements to the hidden and secret prompt that Openai adds to your Chatgpt interactions. Unfortunately we can't test that.
Also, to be clear, nothing in this post constitutes investment advice or legal advice.
I often see this phrase in online posts related to investment, legal, medical advice. Why is it there? These posts obviously contain investment/legal/medical advice. Why are they claiming they don't?
I guess that the answer is related to some technical meaning of the word "advice", which is different from its normal language meaning. I guess there is some law that forbids you from giving "advice". I would like to know more details.
Edit: This question was answered in a previous comment.
You are implying that it is hard to get Samsung expose. Why? On their website [1] they list several ISINs. Some of them I can buy in through my usual broker. They aren't special.
[1] https://www.samsung.com/global/ir/stock-information/listing-Info/
My problem is that you link libsyn in the post but it doesn't contain all episodes. I was able to find the other episodes but I would still like for the post to be updated.
Are you no longer updating the libsyn version? The most recent episode there is from August 2022 while the other sites have newer episodes.
Is it possible to buy the book as an ebook? Why not?
Do you OP have access to secret (non public) information related to the bet?
I agree and I am putting my money where my mouth is.
I will play this game under the rules linked in the OP with me as the gatekeeper and anyone as the AI. I will bet at odds 10:1 (favorable to you) that I will not let the AI out. The minimum bet is my 10 k USD against your 1 k USD and the maximum bet my 100 k USD against your 10 k USD. We will use a mutually accepted LW community member as referee.
If you believe you have at least a 10% chance of making me let the AI out, you should take this bet. I predict no one will take me up on it.
I speculate that the reason that gatekeepers let the AI out is that they do not take the experiment seriously enough. They don't really care about not letting the AI out. Maybe they want the outcome to be that the AI has been let out so that people take AI safety more seriously. I'm not saying an actual superintelligence couldn't do it, but no currently available intelligence can (with me as the gatekeeper).