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Ethereum switched from Proof of Work to Proof of Stake in late 2022. Just noting this for reference for other future comment readers.

What is/was your total monetary compensation at both jobs? Or if you don't want want to say absolute numbers, what is the relative change in compensation?

You said that you believe that the AI bubble is going to burst in the next few months. Could you phrase that as a testable prediction? For example, you're 80% sure that in 6 months, the stock market price of Nvidia will be 80% of what it is today. This would help me understand your prediction better. Different people have different views on what "pretty certain" and "burst" means. I just want a clarification. I don't want to argue about the prediction.

You asked people to try resolving the problem on their own. So here is my answer before I read further. I was motivated to find a reason for the doomsday math to be incorrect by your prompt.

I felt the mistake was the hidden ambiguity of this statement:

Assuming that you are a random person among all the people destined to be born.

How do we randomly sample the person? Imagine you had to code this as a simulation in Python. Which of the following algorithms does your program follow?

1. Pick uniformly randomly between Short and Long. If Short, then pick a

Update?

Invariably, within 10 minutes, I receive messages from coworkers congratulating me on my boldness. You asked him? That question? So brave!

How do you respond to those messages?

Could you make it more clear how you would change the original Harris market to avoid the problem? I'm not sure what exactly you mean by "base question and a conjunctive market". I figure you're talking about the "other" option in the market you link, which prevents N/A. But how do you add that to the Harris market? Is it just adding one more option "Another person not listed here is nominee and Harris wins"?

I read your post but didn't understand it immediately. After thinking about it, I wrote what I feel the main points are in my own words. Maybe this makes it more clear to others too. Or maybe the OP will comment that I misunderstood something.

The "Harris market" can be seen as (is functionally equivalent to) a collection of markets. Each market has the following form:

Would Harris win, if {person} were her Vice Presidential nominee in 2024?

Each market resolves as follows:

• Yes, if {person} is the nominee and Harris wins.
• No, if {person} is the nominee

I agree and I am putting my money where my mouth is.

I will play this game under the rules linked in the OP with me as the gatekeeper and anyone as the AI. I will bet at odds 10:1 (favorable to you) that I will not let the AI out. The minimum bet is my 10 k USD against your 1 k USD and the maximum bet my 100 k USD against your 10 k USD. We will use a mutually accepted LW community member as referee.

If you believe you have at least a 10% chance of making me let the AI out, you should take this bet. I predict no one will take me up on it.

I speculate that the ... (read more)

The bet has been lost. The merge wasn't allowed. https://archive.ph/MDYWF

The share price of Spirit Airlines (NYSE: save) dropped to 50%.

I consider it unlikely that my interactions with ChatGPT 3.5 (that led to my original post) played a significant role as training data that helped make ChatGPT 4 so much better.

Why do you consider it unlikely?

If I was good at memorization (model parameter size) but bad at reasoning then your original post showing up in my training data would help me.

I'm also curious how much of the improvement comes from improvements to the hidden and secret prompt that Openai adds to your Chatgpt interactions. Unfortunately we can't test that.

Also, to be clear, nothing in this post constitutes investment advice or legal advice.

I often see this phrase in online posts related to investment, legal, medical advice. Why is it there? These posts obviously contain investment/legal/medical advice. Why are they claiming they don't?

I guess that the answer is related to some technical meaning of the word "advice", which is different from its normal language meaning. I guess there is some law that forbids you from giving "advice". I would like to know more details.

Edit: This question was answered in a p... (read more)

You are implying that it is hard to get Samsung expose. Why? On their website [1] they list several ISINs. Some of them I can buy in through my usual broker. They aren't special.

[1] https://www.samsung.com/global/ir/stock-information/listing-Info/

My problem is that you link libsyn in the post but it doesn't contain all episodes. I was able to find the other episodes but I would still like for the post to be updated.

Are you no longer updating the libsyn version? The most recent episode there is from August 2022 while the other sites have newer episodes.

Is it possible to buy the book as an ebook? Why not?

You can find the previous volumes online at https://www.lesswrong.com/bestoflesswrong .

Do you OP have access to secret (non public) information related to the bet?

The link to the 36 questions is paywalled. I am pasting them here.

1. Given the choice of anyone in the world, whom would you want as a dinner guest?
2. Would you like to be famous? In what way?
3. Before making a telephone call, do you ever rehearse what you are going to say? Why?
4. What would constitute a “perfect” day for you?
5. When did you last sing to yourself? To someone else?
6. If you were able to live to the age of 90 and retain either the mind or body of a 30-year-old for the last 60 years of your life, which would you want?
7. Do you have a secret hunch about ho