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It's extremely weird that atomic weapons have not been used in anger since WW II, and we know that humanity got lucky on several occasions, UFOs seems to like to be around ships that have nuclear weapons and power so I assign some non-trivial probability to aliens having saved us from nuclear war. 


Bird watchers also tend to see more birds. 

I'd imagine there are more sensors and eyeballs looking in the skies at high security facilities, thus more UAP. 

What is the name of this bias?

In America, many people are searching for the extreme versions of success, and we've been conditioned to see significantly above average levels of success as the baseline.

Drake meme:

  • Working out, sleeping well, and eating reasonably to stay in shape = meh
  • Having 8 pack abs, 20" biceps & being able to 360 dunk a basketball = YEAH, that's what I'm talkin' bout!

If you're going to have extreme success, I think it often takes some extreme variables in the equation. That might be extreme talent (or extreme wealth or extreme-ly valuable personal/professional networks), such that extreme work isn't required.

But sometimes extreme work and discipline is necessary if you want to achieve extreme results.

You may decide at some point you no longer value obtaining some extreme result enough to continue it's pursuit. I think that's wise, as I've found the cost is too high and life is too short.

Plenty of evidence.

Any that you find particularly clear and compelling?

Anyone following the role American football may play in long term brain injuries? Subconcussive hits to the head accumulating to cause problems?

Anyone have thoughts?

I was criticising the criticism of this post.

I feel like you're taking all of this way too seriously.


Yes. LW's content is too good for this.

Things you cannot control directly - what your metabolism actually does with the food you put in your mouth

Agreed. Some people have significantly higher metabolisms.

Things this model doesn't even mention - there are other important things about the food, not just calories

Agreed. I'm not talking about nutrition, just weight loss.

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