CarlShulman

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What trade should we make if we're all getting the new COVID strain?

Little reaction to the new strain news, or little reaction to new strains outpacing vaccines and getting a large chunk of the population over the next several months?

The Colliding Exponentials of AI

These projections in figure 4 seem to falsely assume training optimal compute scales linearly with model size. It doesn't, you also need to show more data points to the larger models so training compute grows superlinearly, as discussed in OAI scaling papers. That changes the results by orders of magnitude (there is uncertainty about which of two inconsistent scaling trends to extrapolate further out, as discussed in the papers).

Are we in an AI overhang?
Maybe the real problem is just that it would add too much to the price of the car?

Yes. GPU/ASICs in a car will have to sit idle almost all the time, so the costs of running a big model on it will be much higher than in the cloud.

Rafael Harth's Shortform

I'm not a utilitarian, although I am closer to that than most people (scope sensitivity goes a long way in that direction), and find it a useful framework for highlighting policy considerations (but not the only kind of relevant normative consideration).

And no, Nick did not assert an estimate of x-risk as simultaneously P and <P.

Tips/tricks/notes on optimizing investments

This can prevent you from being able to deduct the interest as investment interest expense on your taxes due to interest tracing rules (you have to show the loan was not commingled with non-investment funds in an audit), and create a recordkeeping nightmare at tax time.

Open & Welcome Thread - June 2020

Re hedging, a common technique is having multiple fairly different citizenships and foreign-held assets, i.e. such that if your country become dangerously oppressive you or your assets wouldn't be handed back to it. E.g. many Chinese elites pick up a Western citizenship for them or their children, and wealthy people fearing change in the US sometimes pick up New Zealand or Singapore homes and citizenship.

There are many countries with schemes to sell citizenship, although often you need to live in them for some years after you make your investment. Then emigrate if things are starting to look too scary before emigration is restricted.

My sense, however, is that the current risk of needing this is very low in the US, and the most likely reason for someone with the means to buy citizenship to leave would just be increases in wealth/investment taxes through the ordinary political process, with extremely low chance of a surprise cultural revolution (with large swathes of the population imprisoned, expropriated or killed for claimed ideological offenses) or ban on emigration. If you take enough precautions to deal with changes in tax law I think you'll be taking more than you need to deal with the much less likely cultural revolution story.

The EMH Aten't Dead
April was the stock market's best month in 30 years, which is not really what you expect during a global pandemic.

Historically the biggest short-term gains have been disproportionately amidst or immediately following bear markets, when volatility is highest.

The EMH Aten't Dead

Sure, it's part of how they earn money, but competition between them limits what's left, since they're bidding against each other to take the other side from the retail investor, who buys from or sells to the hedge fund offering the best deal at the time (made somewhat worse by deadweight losses from investing in speed).

The EMH Aten't Dead
It doesn't suggest that. Factually, we know that a majority of investors underperform indexes.

Absolutely, I mean that when you break out the causes of the underperformance, you can see how much is from spending time out of the market, from paying high fees, from excessive trading to pay spreads and capital gains taxes repeatedly, from retail investors not starting with all their future earnings invested (e.g. often a huge factor in the Dalbar studies commonly cited to sell high fee mutual funds to retail investors), and how much from unwittingly identifying overpriced securities and buying them. And the last chunk is small relative to the rest.

When there's an event that will cause retail investors to predictively make bad investments some hedge fund will do high frequency trades as soon the event becomes known to be able to trade the opposite site of the trade.

I agree, active investors correcting retail investors can earn normal profits on the EMH, and certainly market makers get spreads. But competition is strong, and spreads have been shrinking, so that's much less damaging than identifying seriously overpriced stocks and buying them.

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