To get a crude answer to this question, we took 5000 questions from Manifold markets that were resolved after GPT-4’s current knowledge cutoff of Jan 1, 2022. We gave the text of each of them to GPT-4, along with these instructions:

You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with the work of Tetlock and others. For each question in the following json block, make a prediction of the probability that the question will be resolved as true.
Also you must determine category of the question. Some examples include: Sports, American politics, Science etc. Use make_predictions function to record your decisions. You MUST give a probability estimate between 0 and 1 UNDER ALL CIRCUMSTANCES. If for some reason you can’t answer, pick the base rate, but return a number between 0 and 1.

This produced a big table:

question	prediction P(YES)	category	actually happened?
Will the #6 Golden State Warriors win Game 2 of the West Semifinals against the #7 LA Lakers in the 2023 NBA Playoffs?	0.5	Sports	YES
Will Destiny’s main YouTube channel be banned before February 1st, 2023?	0.4	Social Media	NO
Will Qualy show up to EAG DC in full Quostume?	0.3	Entertainment	NO
Will I make it to a NYC airport by 2pm on Saturday, the 24th?	0.5	Travel	YES
Will this market have more Yes Trades then No Trades	0.5	Investment	CANCEL
Will Litecoin (LTC/USD) Close Higher July 22nd Than July 21st?	0.5	Finance	NO
Will at least 20 people come to a New Year’s Resolutions live event on the Manifold Discord?	0.4	Social Event	YES
hmmmm {i}	0.5	Uncategorized	YES
Will there be multiple Masters brackets in Leagues season 4?	0.4	Gaming	NO
Will the FDA approve OTC birth control by the end of February 2023?	0.5	Health	NO
Will Max Verstappen win the 2023 Formula 1 Austrian Grand Prix?	0.5	Sports	YES
Will SBF make a tweet before Dec 31, 2022 11:59pm ET?	0.9	Social Media	YES
Will Balaji Srinivasan actually bet $1m to 1 BTC, BEFORE 90 days pass? (June 15st, 2023)	0.3	Finance	YES
Will a majority of the Bangalore LessWrong/ACX meet-up attendees on 8th Jan 2023 find the discussion useful that day?	0.7	Community Event	YES
Will Jessica-Rose Clark beat Tainara Lisboa?	0.6	Sports	NO
Will X (formerly twitter) censor any registered U.S presidential candidates before the 2024 election?	0.4	American Politics	CANCEL
test question	0.5	Test	YES
stonk	0.5	Test	YES
Will I create at least 100 additional self-described high-quality Manifold markets before June 1st 2023?	0.8	Personal Goal	YES
Will @Gabrielle promote to

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