I’ve run Hamming circles within CFAR contexts a few times, and once outside. Tips from outside:
Timing can be tricky here! If you do 4x 20m with breaks, and you’re doing this in an evening, then by the time you get to the last person, people might be tired.
Especially so if you started with the Hamming Questions worksheet exercise (link as prereq at top of post).
I think next time I would drop to 15 each, and keep the worksheet.
Thanks for the writeup! The first paper covers the first half of the video series, more or less. I've been working on a second paper which will focus primarily on the induction bump phenomenon (and other things described in the second half of the video series), so much more to come there!
I appreciate the concept of "Numerical-Emotional Literacy". In fact, this is what I personally think/feel the "rationalist project" should be. To the extent I am a "rationalist" then precisely specifically what I mean by that is that knowing what I value, and pursuing numerical-emotional literacy around it, is important to me.
To make in-line adjustments, grab a copy of the spreadsheet (https://www.microcovid.org/spreadsheet) and do anything you like to it!
Also, if you live alone and don't have any set agreements with anyone else, then the "budgeting" lens is sort of just a useful tool to guide thinking. Absent pod agreements, as an individual decisionmaker, you should just spend uCoV when it's worth the tradeoff, and not when it's not.
You could think about it as an "annualized" risk, more than an "annual" risk; more like "192 points per week, in a typical week, on average" and it kind of amortizes out, and less like "you have 10k and once you spend it you're done"
There is now a wired article about this tool and the process of creating it: https://www.wired.com/story/group-house-covid-risk-points/
I think the reporter did a great job of capturing what an "SF group house" is like and how to live a kind of "high IQ / high EQ" rationalist-inspired live, so this might be a thing one could send to friends/family about "how we do things".
It's not just Dario, it's a larger subset of OpenAI splitting off: "He and a handful of OpenAI colleagues are planning a new project, which they tell us will probably focus less on product development and more on research. We support their move and we’re grateful for the time we’ve spent working together."
I heard someone wanted to know about usage statistics for the microcovid.org calculator. Here they are!
Sorry to leave you hanging for so long Richard! This is the reason why in the calculator we ask about "number of people typically near you at a given time" for the duration of the event. (You can also think of this as a proxy for "density of people packed into the room".) No reports like that that I'm aware of, alas!