LESSWRONG
LW

cctt7777ttcc
0020
Message
Dialogue
Subscribe

Posts

Sorted by New

Wikitag Contributions

Comments

Sorted by
Newest
No wikitag contributions to display.
Are Metaculus AI Timelines Inconsistent?
cctt7777ttcc2y10

I don't mean to say that, but maybe it's entailed. (I don't know.) 

I'm saying even if it were the same group of forecasters who forecast all three questions, and even if every one of those forecasters is internally consistent with themselves, it will not necessarily be the case that the median for the "how many months" question will be equal to the difference between the medians of the other two questions. 

Reply
Are Metaculus AI Timelines Inconsistent?
cctt7777ttcc2y10

Part of the story could be median is not a linear function, and there is no guarantee that the median of the difference between two distributions equals the difference of their medians.

Reply
No posts to display.