LESSWRONG
LW

Celer
28519330
Message
Dialogue
Subscribe

Posts

Sorted by New

Wikitag Contributions

Comments

Sorted by
Newest
No wikitag contributions to display.
Common misconceptions about OpenAI
Celer1y12

https://x.com/JacobHHilton/status/1794090561294467074

He has also explicitly told people not to expect candor from him on this issue until the situation changes. That the binding is no longer part of a contract, as opposed to implicit threat, seems of little relevance.

Reply
Common misconceptions about OpenAI
Celer1y155

I am very curious how you think about this post in retrospect: parts of it seem clearly falsified. I completely understand if you currently feel bound by a non-disparagement clause and expect it to be a few weeks before that can be confirmed to no longer apply. 

Reply1
Cheap food causes cooperative ethics
Celer1y33

Three years later, I mostly stand by this: war with China has not happened, but estimates of likelihoods have risen, and it not driven by food concerns in the slightest.

Reply
Abuse in LessWrong and rationalist communities in Bloomberg News
Celer2y1610

How do you expect journalism to work? The author is trying to contribute one specific story, in detail. Readers have other experiences to compare and draw from. If this was an academic piece, I might be more sympathetic.

Reply
Victoria Krakovna on AGI Ruin, The Sharp Left Turn and Paradigms of AI Alignment
Celer2y10

Correction: the Youtube link should point to https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZpwSNiLV-nw, not the current location (a previous video of yours).

Reply
Monthly Shorts 12/22
Celer2y10

I wish I knew! Nobody has yet explained it to me, nor do I have any theories I am particularly confident in.

Reply
Cheap food causes cooperative ethics
Celer4y230

This is deeply unconvincing. We didn't have a great power war in the 60s or the 70s because that would have meant nuclear war. High-level US government officials in internal documents describe Russia as an existential threat. Russian government documents, as I understand it, reflect terror of American willingness to use nukes. We haven't had a war between the US and China yet, but estimates of that holding true over the next five years are less confident than I'd like.

"Most wars have ultimately been fought over land because land determines food production and food production was a matter of life and death."

It seems like you're explaining the actions of kings with the preferences of peasants (and I am very unconvinced that a victorious war was better for the average peasant than peace), and I don't see that as particularly persuasive. 

Reply
Beware Superficial Plausibility
Celer4y10

Priors are relative to how much evidence can be shared. There may not be agreement in a single conversation, but they should expect movement towards a common belief, though there are degenerate counter-cases. For example, perhaps both parties share a base rate and have different pieces of information that push in the same direction.

Reply
Beware Superficial Plausibility
Celer4y30

I think that the reason I don't see a lot of arguments against anti-vaxxers is that I don't know that I know of any. I think the reason that I see anti-vaxxers derided more often than average is flat-earthers are parsed as harmless and anti-vaxxers are parsed as doing harm. I think I'm not quite following what you're saying.

Reply
Beware Superficial Plausibility
Celer4y110

There's not a hard cutoff between 2005, when Ioannidis publishes, and the present, but I've worked on multiple systematic reviews, going over thousands of papers, and there's a visible improvement in quality over time, and that seemed like a reasonable date for "replication crisis attention is high."

Reply
Load More
86/23
2y
0
105/23
2y
0
13Monthly Shorts 8/21
2y
2
8Monthly Shorts 4/23
2y
1
7Monthly Shorts 3/23
2y
1
9Monthly Shorts 1&2/23
2y
0
5Monthly Shorts 12/22
3y
2
8Monthly Shorts 11/22
3y
0
12Monthly Shorts 10/22
3y
0
10Monthly Shorts 9/22, and An Essay in Defense of Technodeterminism
3y
1
Load More