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Cervera
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Thane Ruthenis's Shortform
Cervera6mo3-2

I dont think any of that invalidates that Gwern is a usual, usually right. 

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the Giga Press was a mistake
Cervera11mo-2-3

I dont think this is a good take. 

The Cybertruck does not break on that pull. It breaks on this one: 0:27

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Inflection.ai is a major AGI lab
Cervera2y32

"We'll be building a cluster of around 22,000 H100s. This is approximately three times more compute than what was used to train all of GPT4. 

 

This bothers me. It's a naive way of seeing compute. It's like confusing Watts and Watt-hours 

22,000 H100s is three times the amount of FLOP/s than what was used to GPT-4, so you could train it in 3x less time, of with 1/3 of your cluster and the same time. 

I think this view of looking at compute helps making naive asumptions about what this compute can be used to. And FLOP/s are not a perfect unit for normal discourse when we're at x10¹⁵ scales. 

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Are the majority of your ancestors farmers or non-farmers?
Answer by CerveraJun 20, 202310

If ancestor is parent/mother/grandparent etc but nothing else. Obviously non hunters.

If we count how many people dead or alive are you related to. Farmers.

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Intelligence Officials Say U.S. Has Retrieved Craft of Non-Human Origin
Cervera2y40

Better than 90% of amateur fiction posted. 

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The AGI Race Between the US and China Doesn’t Exist.
Cervera2y61

This gap will only widen over time; China is failing to develop a domestic semiconductor industry, despite massive efforts to do so, and is increasingly cut off from international semiconductor supply chains.

 

I would say this is a falsehood 

The US export ban on Controlled GPUs has really made china push for local semiconductor manufacturing way, and accelerate their projects, they dont have 5nm TSMC quality wafers, fine, but they're developing the full stack. 

tphuang on Twitter: "Semiconductor export from Korea down 41% in April Falling SSD price in China due to YMTC produced 2TB SSDs widely available < 1000K RMB https://t.co/Oh4alI8niC Samsung can't compete w/ YMTC production cost, now cutting production after resisting for months. as YMTC restart…" / Twitter

 

Yicai Global 第一财经 on Twitter: "China’s TanKeBlue to Supply SiC Wafers, Boules to German Chip Giant Infineon @Infineon https://t.co/GRgPjKsaCr" / Twitter

 

I mean if this was a "The AGi Race Between the US and Russia doesnt exist" okay fine, but Seeing how more than half the papers that land in ArXiv have chinese authors in them, plus the whole China does 90% of electronic manufacturing in the world. I dont understand how you come to the conclusion that china is hopelessly dead in the water. 


The day the US export ban on GPU happened, okay, most of us really wondered, but seeing how they're operating 6 months to a year afterwards, it just obvious that they will be able to make it happen. 

 

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I bet $500 on AI winning the IMO gold medal by 2026
Cervera2y10

I dont think the difficulty of the task has much with the outcome. 

 

I mean, I take your comment at face value and update to "it's going to get powerful faster" and not the other way around.

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My Assessment of the Chinese AI Safety Community
Cervera2y252

A "moonshot idea" I saw brought up is getting Yudkowsky's Harry Potter fanfiction translated into Chinese (please never ever do this).

 

Can you expand on this? Why would it be a bad idea? I have interacted with mainland chinese people (outside of china) and I'm not really making the connection. 

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Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down by Eliezer Yudkowsky
Cervera2y10

Well, Evals and that stuff OpenAI did with predicting loss could be a starting point to work in the tables. 

But we dont really know, I guess that's the point EY is trying to make. 

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