What is your probability that there is a god? (Svir creprag)
20%
What is your probability that psychic powers exist? (Bar va bar gubhfnaq)
25%
What is your probability that anthropogenic global warming will increase temperatures by at least 1C by 2050? (Avargl creprag)
75%
What is your probability that a pandemic kills at least one billion people in a 5 year period by 2100? (Svsgrra creprag)
50%
What is your probability that humans land on Mars by 2050? (Rvtugl creprag)
30%
What is your probability that superintelligent AI (=AI better than almost every human at almost every cognitive task) exists by 2115? (Gjragl svir creprag)
80%
I feel like I see some of the overconfidence mentioned in this post in the comments section ;)
20%
25%
75%
50%
30%
80%
I feel like I see some of the overconfidence mentioned in this post in the comments section ;)