This post was published as part of the 2nd edition of Navigating AI Risks, a newsletter about the governance of transformative AI risks written by @simeon_c, @Henry Papadatos, and me. Feel free to submit your feedback on the newsletter here.

Summary

The supposed trade-off between regulation and technology leadership is widely put forward as an argument for avoiding regulation. But currently, preservation by the US of its AI leadership over China need not come at the cost of effective AI governance.

In the context of US-China strategic competition, two key variables define policymakers' risk-benefit analysis regarding AI regulation:

the desirability of AI regulation and its impact on innovation capacity
whether the United States is on course to maintain (or increase) its AI lead over China

Here are my observations on the first variable (desirability of AI regulation):

Regulation can promote and shape innovation
Increasingly powerful systems are rendering existing laws insufficient, and regulation helps avoid large-scale accidents
Regulation can foster better regulation
Regulation helps facilitate adoption

Here are my observations on the second variable (likelihood that the US maintains its AI lead over China):

China has ambitious goals and is putting in the means to achieve them
China currently remains behind the US
China's autocratic advantage is overestimated
China doesn’t prioritize AI leadership at all costs
Innovation is insufficient by itself to get ahead
The US has a well-developed network of alliances it can use to its benefit

I conclude that (i) the United States' AI lead over China and (ii) the risks posed by AI seem large enough to set up guardrails, even if it stifles innovation. The United States doesn’t have to choose between maintaining AI leadership over China and hardwiring both safety procedures and democratic values into its AI governance ecosystem. It should do both.

Introduction

The modern story of tech regulation in the United States is a story about China. Worries that regulation may damage the US's technology leadership vis-à-vis China have often been cited as a reason not to regulate. This concern played an important role in debates on privacy rules^[1], breaking up Big Tech companies^[2], and now AI^[3].

This trade-off between regulation and technological preeminence seems obvious. But the situation is more complicated. The preservation of AI le...

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