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We should probably buy ADA?

I’ve always thought that the killer app of smart contracts is creating institutions that are transparent, static and unstoppable. So for example uncensored media publishing, defi, identity, banking. It’s a way to enshrine in code a set of principles of how something will work that then cannot be eroded by corruption or interference.

Social Calibration

There is the point that 80% of people can say that they are better than average drivers and actually be correct. People value different things in driving, and optimise for those things. One person’s good driver may be safe, someone else may value speed. So both can say truthfully and correctly that they are a better driver than the other. When you ask them about racing it narrows the question to something more specific.

You can expand that to social hierarchies too. There isn’t one hierarchy, there are many based on different values. So I can feel high status at being a great musician while someone else can feel high status at earning a lot, and we can both be right.

Agency in Conway’s Game of Life

I think a problem you would have is that the speed of information in the game is the same as the speed of, say, a glider. So an AI that is computing within Life would not be able to sense and react to a glider quickly enough to build a control structure in front of it.

Challenge: know everything that the best go bot knows about go

I’d say 1 and 7 (for humans). The way humans understand go is different to how bots understand go. We use heuristics. The bots may use heuristics too but there’s no reason we could comprehend those heuristics. Considering the size of the state space it seems that the bot has access to ways of thinking about go that we don’t, the same way a bot can look further ahead in a chess games than we could comprehend.

April 15, 2040

Why are we still paying taxes if we have AI this brilliant? Surely we then have ridiculous levels of abundance

Why I Work on Ads

I strongly disagree with your sentiments.

Advertising is bad because it’s fundamentally about influencing people to do things they wouldn’t do otherwise. That takes us all away from what’s actually important. It also drives the attention economy, which turns the process of searching for information and learning about the world into a machine for manipulating people. Advertising should really be called commercial propaganda - that reveals more clearly what it is. Privacy is only one aspect of the problem.

Your arguments are myopic in that they are all based on the current system we have now, which is built around advertising models. Of course those models don’t work well without advertising. If we reduced advertising the world would keep on turning and human ingenuity would come up with other ways for information to be delivered and funded. I don’t need to define what new system that would be to say that advertising is bad.

Let's Rename Ourselves The "Metacognitive Movement"

I find rationalist cringey for some reason and won’t describe myself like that. As you said, in seems to discount intuition, emotion and instinct. 99% of human behaviour is driven by irrational forces and that’s not necessarily a bad thing. The word rationalist to me feels like a denial of our true nature and a doomed attempt to be purely rational - rather than trying to be a bit more deliberate in action and beliefs

Are we prepared for Solar Storms?

What I want to know is how bad an effect, exactly, will a solar storm be likely to have. It’s all very vague.

How long will it take to get the power back on? A couple of days? Weeks? Months? Those are very different scenarios.

And, can we do something now to turn the monty long scenario into a week? Maybe we can stockpile a few transformers or something.

Notes on Schelling's "Strategy of Conflict" (1960)

Just a writing tip. Might help to define initialisations at least once before using them. EA isn’t self evidently effective altruism.

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