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METR: Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks

Well, the REBench tasks don't all have the same length, at least in the data METR is using. It's all tightly clustered around 8 hours though, so I take your point that it's not a very meaningful correlation.

METR: Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks

I think this criticism is wrong—if it were true, the across-dataset correlation between time and LLM-difficulty should be higher than the within-dataset correlation, but from eyeballing Figure 4 (page 10), it looks like it's not higher (or at least not much).

It is much higher. ~~I'm not sure how/if I can post images of the graph here, but~~ the R^2 for SWAA only is 0.27, HCAST only is 0.48, and RE-bench only is 0.01.

Graph with log(human time-to-complete) on the x-axis and Mean Model Success Rate on the y-axis. It shows all SWAA tasks, with a linear negative trend line.

Graph with log(human time-to-complete) on the x-axis and Mean Model Success Rate on the y-axis. It shows all HCAST tasks, with a linear negative trend line.

Graph with log(human time-to-complete) on the x-axis and Mean Model Success Rate on the y-axis. It shows all RE-bench tasks, and a positive trend line that doesn't really fit the data (R^2 = 0.01).

Also, HCAST R^2 goes down to 0.41 if you exclude the 21/97 data points where the human time source is an estimate. I'm not really sure why t... (read more)