chris221122

Fuirst, I don't think looking at "number of cases identified" is useful at all for this analysis. Mainly because this is too much a function of how much testing you do that it's not very meaningful.

Let's write down the hypothesis: "the linearity observed is primarily due to the arrival of "deaths door" for those approaching end of life. A fixed fraction of these deaths have covid in any country because a fixed fraction are in living situations that give them some minimal exposure."

So what are some consequences of this hypothesis?

We could look at the death rates of young folks, say those under 50. We'd assume that for that set, their death... (read more)

[ I posted this on Radford's blog but not sure if it posted. Will post here as well:]

Might I suggest another hypothesis: that in the metro areas of major cities in most countries that have been hit hard (i.e. those with linear growth rates in deaths), the infection rate among the frail WHO WERE GOING TO DIE OF OLD AGE ANYWAYS reaches saturation point. Then, all the old age deaths (that would have happened anyways), start being classified as covid deaths. In reality, they are probably best considered covid deaths+other causes. It would be fair to say covid expedited the death, but then so did every other infection and disease that they... (read more)