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I see the valuable part of this question not as what you'd do with unlimited magical power, but as more akin to the <a href="/lw/rt/id_take_it/">earlier question</a> asked by Eliezer: what would you do with $10 trillion? That leaves you making trade-offs, using current technology, and still decidin...(read more)

I'm not trying to speak for Robin; the following are my views. One of my deepest fears--perhaps my only phobia--is fear of government. And any government with absolute power terrifies me absolutely. However the singleton is controlled, it's an absolute power. If there's a single entity in charge...(read more)

"<i> at least as well thought out and disciplined in contact with reality as Eliezer's theories are</i>"

I'll have to grant you that, Robin. Eliezer hasn't given us much solid food to chew on yet. Lots of interesting models and evocative examples. But it's hard to find solid arguments that this ...(read more)

Endogenous Growth theory, Economic Growth and Research Policy all seem to be building mathematical models that attempt to generalize over our experience of how much government funding leads to increased growth, how quickly human capital feeds back into societal or individual wealth, or what interve...(read more)

Tyrrell, it seems to me that there's a huge difference between Fermi's model and the one Robin has presented. Fermi described a precise mechanism that made precise predictions that Fermi was able to state ahead of time and confirm experimentally. Robin is drawing a general analogy between several ...(read more)

MZ: I doubt there are many disagreements that there were other interesting inflection points. But Robin's using the best hard data on productivity growth that we have and it's hard to see those inflection points in the data. If someone can think of a way to get higher-resolution data covering thos...(read more)


I thought the heart of EY's post was here:

even if you could record and play back "good moves", the resulting program would not play chess any better than you do.

If I want to create an AI that plays better chess than I do, I have to program a search for winning moves. I can't program in ...(read more)

> Third, you can't possibly be using an actual, > persuasive-to-someone-thinking-correctly argument to > convince the gatekeeper to let you out, or you would be persuaded > by it, and would not view the weakness of gatekeepers to persuasion > as problematic.

But Eliezer's long-term goal is to build...(read more)

I agree on Pearl's accomplishment.

I have read Dennet, and he does a good job of explaining what Consciousness is and how it could arise out of non-conscious parts. William Calvin was trying to do the same thing with how wetware (in the form that he knew it at the time) could do something like thi...(read more)

I read most of the interchange between EY and BH. It appears to me that BH still doesn't get a couple of points. The first is that smiley faces are an <b>example</b> of misclassification and it's merely fortuitous to EY's ends that BH actually spoke about designing an SI to use human happiness (an...(read more)