The King has a bow and arrow. He understands exactly how they work, having made them in his youth as part of his training. The King has a stealth aircraft with a nuclear bomb. He understands the abstraction, but teams of thousands of people created it. At the bottom of...
The Divine Move Paradox Imagine you are playing a game of AIssist chess, chess where you have a lifeline. Once per game, you can ask an AI for the optimal move. The game reaches a critical juncture. Most pieces are off the board, and the board state is extremely difficult....
You haven't addressed my point that a smart ASI will be good at summarizing and simplifying.
The story itself is entirely about how this doesn't matter. I also very directly addressed this in more detail in my last reply.
The point I am presenting is one that is more fundamental than all these various topics you are trying to bring in which are not part of my story or my replies. My story is about something that happens somewhere in the path of all outcomes, good or bad. I am unsure why you are trying so hard to dismiss it without addressing my replies, so sure it only happens after success, and so sure there is no practical reason to be thinking about it when trying to understand what is happening, what might happen.
I think it is far more reasonable to operate under the idea that progress might go on forever then the idea that there is a bottom, especially a bottom just barely past what we already know. Seems to me like what you are suggesting is the default position most people throughout history incorrectly suggested.
Also, if there is a bottom, understanding the concept of 0 and 1 doesn't mean you automatically understand all the concepts which a computer can encode in data. "The concepts that can be generated from 0 and 1 will slow down because of physical limitations" makes no sense to assert.
The bandwidth a single human can learn at is very... (read more)
He could understand with time, but by the end the rate of progress outstrips his rate of learning. The abstractions which have meaning for him become forever disconnected from what is known.
The King has a bow and arrow.
He understands exactly how they work, having made them in his youth as part of his training.
The King has a stealth aircraft with a nuclear bomb.
He understands the abstraction, but teams of thousands of people created it. At the bottom of the hierarchy a specialist understands the details of each component, but all actual implementation gets abstracted and combined long before it gets to the King.
The King has a hypersonic drone swarm.
He understands the abstraction, but AI designed most of it. AI created new materials, generated the airframe, wrote the software, and controls the swarm in flight. The AI explains the project to the King in... (read more)
A few things should be made clear.
-random is a bad baseline because activation space is not isotropic (or some other reason I do not understand) and this is not actually that unexpected or interesting.
Isn't this just the answer? To rephrase:
The SAE is only able to represent a subset of the possible directions from the initial space when you force it to compress the space down.
If you take a magnitude from a direction where change matters, and then apply the magnitude to random dimensions most of which the model throws away, it will result in a smaller change.
Grainger is the first thing that came to mind as a legitimate reference that has pricing online.
I don't think you have invalidated any of my points, that the hp of a tesla motor doesn't make any sense to compare with hp ratings of an excavator motor, that high hp electric powerplants are very expensive, that adding VFD's which are not operationally necessary is a large cost and is most often left off in favor of running the motors.
Diesel-electric operate on electric where available, and switch to diesel when they get to unelectrified areas. Many cities are electrified within maybe a 20 mile radius of city center, with farther branches being diesel.
Tesla motors would not be rated at a tesla vehicles rated hp for an industrial application, they are not expected to operate at 100% duty cycle.
If you want to look at industrial motors for sale at a gold standard place like Grainger, a 250hp (sticker hp Model 3 equivalent) motor is $30,000 - $40,000 just for the motor, no VFD, no mounting, no installation.
https://www.grainger.com/category/motors/ac-motors/definite-purpose-motors?attrs=HP%7C250&filters=attrs
Another $15,000 - $30,000 for the VFD
https://www.grainger.com/search/motors/motor-drives-speed-controls/variable-frequency-drives-accessories/variable-frequency-drives?attrs=Maximum+Output+Power%7C250+hp&filters=attrs&searchQuery=VFD&sst=4&tv_optin=true
Just the power cable that you need for a 400A 3 phase service might run something like $40-50/foot on the floor? It is so expensive you can't even get a good reference on Google. Have to hope you have 3 phase available at... (read more)
While lots of hobbyists use VSDs on their equipment so they can run 3 phase motors off standard US line voltage (I do this for my 1/2hp CNC spindle, 1 1/2hp bandsaw in the past), these are mostly non-certified and small Chinese VSDs, that require programming and knowledge beyond the scope of what even skilled operators are normally capable of, yet alone allowed to do in electrical regulations.
The reality is a certified piece of equipment, professionally installed, can cost in the $500/horsepower range. On even a fairly modest piece of equipment with say 5x 3hp motors, that starts to become quite large percent of the cost of the equipment tacked on, and a huge amount of added complexity. The cost of these drives does not scale linearly with size.
The only motors I have used in a professional setting with a VSD required very precise speed control (spindles), not heavy equipment.
Imagine you are playing a game of AIssist chess, chess where you have a lifeline. Once per game, you can ask an AI for the optimal move. The game reaches a critical juncture. Most pieces are off the board, and the board state is extremely difficult. This is the game defining move. You believe you see a path to victory.
You’ve not yet called upon the AI for assistance, so decide to use your lifeline. The AI quickly proposes a move, assuring you it is the best course of action with 100% certainty. However, you look at the board, and the suggested action makes no sense.
Do you take it?
Suppose you... (read 810 more words →)
I am putting these here mainly for myself since it is over 2.5 years since I wrote this post.
Jon Kleinberg and others show some of what I described in a chess AI passing off to a human in 2024 here:
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2405.05066
Kleinberg did a talk on it in 2025 here (how I found the work):
https://www.youtube.com/live/siu_r8j5-sg?si=30li7KEj0f06D6BI&t=2618