Quick quiz: which of the following is the definition of a rational agent? 1. An agent who follows the policy with the highest expected utility 2. An agent who follows the policy of choosing the action with the highest expected utility Are those even different things? In the case of...
Futarchy is usually formulated using multiple continuously running markets, which raises questions about how to introduce liquidity, when to introduce it, and who will do so. Robin Hanson (the inventor of futarchy) recently proposed how to handle some of these details, but they seemed to me a bit inelegant. I...
The motivation for this post came when I was reading various Scott Alexander posts on the Free Energy Principle, in which he seemed very confused about it (the title God Help Us, Let’s Try To Understand Friston On Free Energy might have hinted at that). I was intrigued but also...
In METR: Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks found a Moore's law like trend relating (model release date) to (time needed for a human to do a task the model can do). Here is their rationale for plotting this. > Current frontier AIs are vastly better than humans at...
Consider the following argument made by Tim Babb: So every (non-American) reader is forced to either bet against the market or concede that their credence is at least 16%. However, there is an important 3rd possibility. Since the market cannot resolve before August, it could also imply that Polymarket has...
Does any of this sound familiar? You want to donate as effectively as possible, but you are worried about making the wrong choice. Should it be malaria nets, animal welfare, maybe x-risk? Also, how can you determine which charity evaluators are worthy of your trust? If you actually took the...