Hello everyone. I'm Ciaran Marshall, an economist by trade. I've been following the rationalist community for a while; the breadth of topics frequently discussed at rigour is unparalleled. I run a Substack where you can see my work here (in particular, I recommend the blog on how AI may reduce the efficiency of labour markets, as AI seems to be the most popular topic here): https://open.substack.com/pub/microfounded?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=56swa
For those of you on X, here is my account: https://x.com/microfounded?t=2S5RSGlluRQX3J4SokT...
This definitely occurs often, yet I think the assumption that status-driven shifts in beliefs are always sincere is false. Often we conform as we get penalised for deviation. Gibbard-Satterthwaite theorem implies that if there exists nondictatorship, independence of irrelevant alternatives, and Pareto unamity (the preferences of the majority aggregate to produce the social outcome preferred by the majority) then we will not always be sincere. You see this in poorly-designed auctions where people do not submit bits reflecting what they think the item is worth. I think when people skip step 2, often they haven't updated at all, but are conforming to not lose status.