cistran

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Covid 3/4: Declare Victory and Leave Home

At some point in the near future this rate will become unsustainable. Because vaccine hesitant and vaccine avoiders are a significant minority everywhere.

Attempt at a gears model of getting infected with COVID-19

Injecting RNA into cells is not enough.  There are also interferon protein complexes that interfere with viral RNA doing anything inside the cells. They must be bypassed or overrun or there will be no viral replication. These intracellular defenses make many viral infections grow much slower. 

The Future of Nuclear Arms Control?

USA is not the only nuclear power. Other nuclear powers which begin to descend their cost curves might be tempted to export the cheaper tech, especially if the expensive precision components are not wanted by the buyer. See the nuclear tech connection between Pakistan and North Korea, but make the cost of technology an order of magnitude smaller. 

Limiting the spread of cheap nuclear weapons will never become as impossible as banning firearms, but it will become harder.

Covid: CDC Issues New Guidance on Opening Schools

The FDA must actually say that children are ok to vaccinate, do you think they'll do that by September?

Covid: CDC Issues New Guidance on Opening Schools

I think you corrected your self later, but there was a sentence earlier about vaccinated children in classrooms.

That is not likely to happen this year. Vaccine trials for children are just getting under way

The feeling of breaking an Overton window

I think this post has a lot to do with shifting Overton's windows:

 https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HLqWn5LASfhhArZ7w/expecting-short-inferential-distances

The Future of Nuclear Arms Control?

Any proposal that brings us closer to hundred million dollars nuke will probably be bad for preventing nuclear incident of the mushroom cloud kind. I think your proposal of reducing the size and yield of nuclear weapons also reduces its cost. 

A country like North Korea is unlikely to strike first with nuclear weapons precisely for reasons you mentioned. But possession of them is a significant deterrent against invasion by a conventional military force or insurrection aided by an outside military force, such as ones happened in Iraq and Libya. Any government concerned by a threat of such invasion or insurrection would love to emulate North Korean example now that it is clear that any other safety guarantees are insufficient. Any major actor that actively pursues the strategy of making its nuclear weapons smaller and cheaper must take care that they are not so small and cheap, that any government with a hundred million dollar budget can afford one. 

Heuristic: Replace "No Evidence" with "No Reason"

A very important special case of this: There is no evidence that COVID vaccination reduces transmission.

“PR” is corrosive; “reputation” is not.

All your examples point to self-inflicted reputation loss. I am talking about reputation loss inflicted from outside.

Here is my counter-example: Doctor Ignaz Semmelweis, the inventor of hand hygiene in medical (specifically OBGYN) practice. He was reviled and ridiculed and driven insane by the medical establishment of Vienne. 

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