Commander Zander — LessWrong

Checking in on AI-2027

BTW, i put together a timeline of concrete predictions in AI 2027, for anyone keeping an eye on them as we enter next year: https://alexpear.github.io/pages/ai-2027.html

As Cole Wyeth said, the 2025 predictions were not radical (in other words, they were good predictions), but the 2026 ones anticipate very extreme productivity gains.

RSS feed for 1 LW user?

Answer by Commander ZanderJul 02, 202590

Okay, i found a solution that seems to work: https://www.greaterwrong.com/users/commander-zander?show=posts&format=rss

And you can get a link that includes comments too by changing the mode on this page: https://www.greaterwrong.com/users/commander-zander?show=posts

scarcegreengrass's Shortform

Commander Zander4mo10

My spelling peculiarities:

I prefer not to capitalize the pronoun i.

I prefer to always use a instead of an.

I avoid gendered words. Eg i use steelmind/strawmind instead of steelman/strawman.

scarcegreengrass's Shortform

Commander Zander4mo20

Unusually appropriate calendar alignment: January 6 has become a anniversary of infamous unrest in the USA. Curiously, the tonally-analogous Feast of Fools scene in Hunchback of Notre Dame (novel) is also on January 6.

Notes on Meetup Ideas

Commander Zander5mo30

I'm no expert; I've never been there. I merely talked to someone from Seattle a couple weeks ago.

Thoughts on AI 2027

Commander Zander7mo40

I see. I at first assumed your 'effectively dead' meant 'biologically alive, but certain to die soon'.

Most Questionable Details in 'AI 2027'

Commander Zander7mo20

Thank you for the info!

AI 2027: What Superintelligence Looks Like

Commander Zander7mo1-1

I think it's indeed humor & indeed singling out a company.

A Narrow Path: a plan to deal with AI extinction risk

Commander Zander1y30

It sounds like the core idea is a variant of the Intelligence Manhattan Project idea, but with a focus on long term international stability & a ban on competitors.

Perhaps the industry would be more likely to adopt this plan if GUARD could seek revenue the way corporations currently do: by selling stock & API subscriptions. This would also increase productivity for GUARD & shorten the dangerous arms race interval.

Interest in Leetcode, but for Rationality?

Answer by Commander ZanderOct 16, 202420

I think this sounds fun! The versions of this i'd be most likely to use would be:

Puzzling over scenarios of satisfying complexity. There could be numerical details, selection bias, unreliable narrator obstacles, cases where users with different values might disagree, etc. Even if the scenario-poster is arguably wrong about the right answer, that could still be interesting.
Scenarios that you puzzle over & then read a comment section about. Scenarios that you remember & talk about with friends later.
User-submitted anecdotes from their real lives. This is oddly similar to Reddit's 'Am I the Asshole' threads, but with a focus on becoming more clearheaded & unbiased. Users could sometimes ask for testable predictions about what will happen next, then report back later. So if the pictured scenario came from real life, Maria might ask users how many times Jake will be late in the next 6 months.
Philosophy-esque thought experiments.
Scenarios that do indeed benefit my thinking or expand my perspective. Perhaps by improving my mental statistics skills, or exposing me to perspectives of people with very different lives, or demonstrating little-known math subtleties like Simpson's paradox. One failure mode for this would be scenarios like the more boring HR-training courses, where the story doesn't contain any knowledge you don't already know.

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