How to Measure Anything

For whomever reads this ,is as innumerate as I am and is confused about the example simulation with the excel formula "=norminv(rand(), 15, (20–10)/3.29)", I hope my explanation below helps (and is correct!).

The standard error/deviation of 3.29 is such because that's the correct value for the confidence interval of 90%. That number is determined by the confidence interval used. It is not the standard deviation of $10-$20. Don't ask me why, I don't know, yet. 

Additionally, you can't just paste that into excel. Remove the range (20-10) and keep the standard error. 

At least that's the best understanding I have of it thus far. I could be wrong!

How do I improve at being strategic?

So far, I think of Strategy as a method for determining tactics to achieve a goal, and may include developing a step-by-step plan. I see a variety of techniques fitting this framework: 

I'll check out hammertime. Thanks for the suggestion.



Humans are not automatically strategic

How has your strategy (a-h) changed since you wrote this? Are there resources you can share for learning to be more strategic? A method for finding quality resources? Methods for practicing and assessing strategic skill?

Welcome to LessWrong!

Could you expand on what makes the typography noteworthy? I'm completely unaware of this topic, but curious.

Training Regime Day 7: Goal Factoring

Jacob Fisker has a method called the reverse fishbone diagram.

You draw a horizontal line and that is the action.

Above the line you draw a diagonal forward slanted line for each positive first order effect of taking that action and below you do the same for negative effects.

On those initial branches, you branch off second order effects, up or down pointed depending on their valence until you have a sketch roughly resembling a fish skeleton with as many orders of effects as you can come up with.

You then count the upward and downward lines and compare how the effects serve other goals you have to determine if this is a good action to continue. Of course, how you weight each effect matters, so you can try to take that into account maybe by bolding important effects.

I prefer this method because it is closer to comprehensive by including more consequences in a slightly more elegant manner than the mind map approach.

I'm assuming there is a goal evaluation lesson coming up, so I won't comment on confusing means/actions with ends/goals.

Training Regime Day 1: What is applied rationality?

Applied rationality: Methods for fostering quick, efficient, and well-informed decision-making toward a goal.

Winter is nearly here and you need a door for your house to keep out the cold. In your workspace there is a large block of an unknown type of wood. Using only what you can assertain about it from your senses and experiences, you determine which tool to use for each circumstance you uncover as you reduce the block into the best door you can make given the time, tools, and knowledge available.

Edit: thanks for the post. It was very helpful.