I agree with you regarding the problem with Trump’s rhetoric. However, the way I see it, we have a choice between a candidate with terrible rhetoric and bad policies, and a candidate with bad rhetoric and terrible policies. I think on every important issue except Ukraine Harris’ policies are likely to be significantly worse.
My first question for you is, are these the actual reasons you support Trump, or are these the arguments for him you'd present?
On the economy, there is a high chance that Harris’ most irrational ideas, such as price controls, would remain a dead letter (especially if Republicans keep control of the House), so it is not implausible that the outcome of the 2024 elections would not matter much for the economy. I do not have such hopes about the other two issues and I do believe them to be very important.
Another important issue I have not listed is the Democrats’ hold on government agencies and public institutions. While I do not like Trump’s behavior in the aftermath of the 2020 elections, I do not think that he was actually attempting a coup or that he had any real chance to hold on to the presidency even if he tried. In contrast, Democrats remain substantially in control of the executive powers even when their party loses the elections.
Fair enough. My own opinion is that, beyond hurting freedom of speech, hiring researchers based on their race, sexual orientation, and ideological compliance is doing massive damage to scientific progress and undermines the ability of research institutions to provide objective information on matters of public policy (COVID-19, AGW, etc.). However, people can indeed have different opinions on the importance of these issues.
I responded to your other questions in two separate comments.
I strongly disapprove of Trump’s post-election antics, but I believe them to be less important than the Democrat's use of illegal immigration to boost their vote. If the US had no illegal immigration from Latin America, the Democrats would have lost about a fifth of their current voters, and, unless they radically changed their platform, would have lost all Congress and Presidential elections in the past twenty years.
You are correct that major legal changes in the immigration process generally require bipartisan support. However, controlling the executive branch is already sufficient to sabotage the implementation of the existing laws. In 1986 the US passed a bipartisan compromise bill that naturalized illegal immigrants residing in the US in return for measures that were supposed to prevent further illegal immigration. However, subsequent Democratic administrations largely refused to enforce them allowing illegal immigration to grow. There is no obvious reason to think that the recent bill proposed by Democrats would have been any different. Given that it was proposed during the election year, its only effect would have been to allow Democrats to pretend that the issue has been resolved and remove it as a discussion topic during the election campaign.
Choosing (2) makes you an extreme outlier among Democrats, so to be honest, it’s a little hard to believe that you thought it through very well. In your opinion, why is it so bad to replace progressive civil servants with conservatives (“our people”), but doing the same for college professors is not?
Can you clarify your answer a little? Do you consider this policy to be not that big of a deal because
Grants to individual researchers now also require the DEI statement. I think the AI is not a very good analogy because:
A more appropriate analogy would be abortion. Suppose the progressive admins in the NSF are replaced with Christian conservatives who replace the DEI statement with the statement on the “sanctity of life”. To get grants, all researchers must demonstrate how their work is relevant to the fight against the murder of unborn children. Those who refuse or argue in favor of pro-choice policies do not get funding and, after a few years, are forced to quit academic institutions. Would you consider this policy a restriction on the freedom of speech and conscience or just a shift in government priorities?
It would probably be more constructive if we focus on one issue at a time, so I suggest we finish this topic before discussing others.
It seems that you are trying to prove to me that Trump’s policies, such as tariffs, would also have downsides. This is obviously true.
> To me it feels like you're turning a blind eye to the huge problems with a Trump/Vance administration.
I must admit that after you mentioned that you don't know any restrictions that the Biden administration has done to freedom of speech I felt the same way. However, personal feelings are subjective, and, most likely, we are both biased on this issue. Can you think of a good rational argument that Trump’s call to imprison flag burners is a greater threat to freedom of speech than the currently existing restrictions in academic institutions?
I do not disagree with anything you wrote in this comment. My statement about empirical evidence was made in the context of policy discussion. When one politician consistently worked to implement some policy (for example, restricting illegal immigration) and another politician worked to sabotage it, the most plausible assumption is that they would stay on the same course during their next term in office. It is also possible that the politicians would radically change course and, in principle, one can make theories trying to predict such changes. However, in practice, people (myself included) are usually very bad at making such predictions.