joseph_c — LessWrong

Results of "Experiment on Bernoulli processes"

Two weeks ago I posted an experiment for priors on Bernoulli processes. I gave you all way too much data, though, so I don't think it worked out to be a very good experiment. This post provides the results and reveals the hidden experiment class. Motivation Behind the Experiment The...

Oct 26, 20259

Experiment: Test your priors on Bernoulli processes.

I have run 1,000,000 experiments. Each experiment consists of 5 trials with binary outcomes, either L (for left) or R (for right). However, I'm not going to tell you how I've picked my experiments. Maybe I'm just flipping a fair coin each time. Maybe I'm using a biased coin. Or...

Oct 12, 202520

joseph_c's Shortform

Aug 23, 20243