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NunoSempere's Shortform
CounterBlunder2mo88

One small suggestion: When I read this, I genuinely couldn't tell whether "Gray swans: None detected this week" was a joke (like you were pretending to look for literal gray/black swans), or if it meant something serious. After reading your website, my guess is that it's meant to be serious---but I'm still not sure, and if it is serious then I don't know what it means. (My understanding is that "black swan" means an unexpected, highly improbable / out of distribution event, so it wasn't clear to me what it would mean in this context to be generally looking for global gray/black swans.) Might be worth clarifying or finding other terminology, if you want readers like me to quickly grok what you mean.

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johnswentworth's Shortform
CounterBlunder3mo30

We haven't had one yet! But we only did it ~3 times. Obviously people are more careful than they'd normally be while dancing on the slippery floor.

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johnswentworth's Shortform
CounterBlunder4mo30

I'll add to this list: If you have a kitchen with a tile floor, have everyone take their shoes off, pour soap and water on the floor, and turn it into a slippery sliding dance party. It's so fun. (My friends and I used to call it "soap kitchen" and it was the highlight of our house parties.)

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Three Subtle Examples of Data Leakage
CounterBlunder1y21

I see, that makes sense. Thank you!

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Three Subtle Examples of Data Leakage
CounterBlunder1y253

Can you help me see this point? Why not correct it in the dataset? (Assuming that the dataset hasn't yet been used to train any models)

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Print Books of Scott Alexander's Writing
CounterBlunder2y10

I'm long overdue here, but thank you so much for doing this!! I've been wanting this for a long time and just discovered this post :)

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Long Covid Risks: 2023 Update
CounterBlunder2y10

see my comment above -- I (ironically) meant aphasia

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Long Covid Risks: 2023 Update
CounterBlunder2y10

hahaha I actually also meant aphasia :P

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Long Covid Risks: 2023 Update
CounterBlunder2y30

This is ~even more~ anecdotal, but me and several of my friends have noticed increased anosmia since the pandemic, but critically starting before any of us got covid (and including friends who never got it). We conjectured that it could be from some combination of very high stress levels for a long time + social isolation? Just to add some data points to the mix.

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Animal welfare EA and personal dietary options
CounterBlunder4y290

Pretty much all the writing I've read by Holocaust survivors says that this was not true, that the experience was unambiguously worse than being dead, and that the only thing that kept them going was the hope of being freed. (E.g. according to Victor Frankl in "Man's Search for Meaning", all the prisoners in his camp agreed that, not only was it worse than being dead, it was so bad that any good experiences after being freed could not make up for it how bad it was. Why they didn't kill themselves is an interesting question that he explores a bit in the book.) Are there any Holocaust survivors who claim otherwise?

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10Printable book of some rationalist creative writing (from Scott A. & Eliezer)
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2How are you currently modeling COVID contagiousness?
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