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Split and Commit

I just summarized part of it, and was downvoted for doing so. Have you tried to correct that and encourage me numerically?

Split and Commit

Ahem. As with F=ma (I think) it's not so much wrong, or useless, as asking the wrong question on a different level.

Split and Commit

When Scott pointed out (for the first time, AFAICT) that Vassar is a dangerous person in the orbit of this community, it was the second report about such a person in as many weeks. This doesn't look to me like a pair of isolated incidents. It looks like part of a pattern.

Therefore, while your technique sounds like a good one in isolation, I suspect you're encouraging your overwhelmingly neurodivergent audience to double down on their inherent flaws, making these worse. (Another clue here is the fact that actions which could be 'justified' under very different models could be dishonest, or they could be plain old expected value maximization.) The added suggestion to think of an experiment to distinguish between hypotheses - indeed, the idea of doing anything at all - is a good addition.

My experience at and around MIRI and CFAR (inspired by Zoe Curzi's writeup of experiences at Leverage)

I should note that, as an outsider, the main point I recall Eliezer making in that vein is that he used Michael Vassar as a model for the character who was called Professor Quirrell. As an outsider, I didn't see that as an unqualified endorsement - though I think your general message should be signal-boosted.

Covid 7/22: Error Correction

That the same 50% of the unwilling believe both that vaccines have been shown to cause autism and that the US government is using them to microchip the population is suggestive that such people are not processing such statements as containing words that possess meanings.

Yes, but you're missing the obvious. Respondents don't have a predictive model that literally says Bill Gates wants to inject them with a tracking microchip. They do, however, have a rational expectation that he or his company will hurt them in some technical way, which they find wholly opaque.

Likewise: do you think that the mistake you mention stemmed from your impatience, which makes you seem blasé about the lives of immunocompromised people like myself? Because, those lawmakers you chose to bully were all vaccinated, so they were engaging in the exact same behavior you just criticized LA for trying to ban. You also just implied, earlier in the post, that if people were less impatient, we'd be largely done.

Going Out With Dignity

What do you believe would happen to a neurotypical forced to have self-awareness and a more accurate model of reality in general?

The idea that they become allistic neurodivergents like me is, of course, a suspicious conclusion, but I'm not sure I see a credible alternative. CEV seems like an inherently neurodivergent idea, in the sense that forcing people (or their extrapolated selves) to engage in analysis is baked into the concept.

Covid 6/24: The Spanish Prisoner

It's suspicious, but I think people's views from long ago on whether or not they would commit suicide are very weak evidence.

Also, we know for a fact the FBI threatened Martin Luther King, Jr, and I don't think they wound up killing him?

Covid 6/24: The Spanish Prisoner

Twitter is saying there's literally a Delta Plus variant already. We don't know what it does.

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