You might want to add Ireland to your Europe graph. It is now higher than UK and much steeper. Portugal is also running parallel to UK since Dec 28 (in log levels).
Actually in general, how do you decide who is in vs out? Netherlands and Denmark are still on the decline.
Every means tested program also adds to the implicit marginal tax rate. If benefits phase out as you earn more, it is as if you are being taxed at a higher rate.
Here are some more details from 2009, I'm not sure about the situation now. And it's hard to analyze nationally, because it depends on state and local programs as well.
You highlight the growth in UK cases, so I tried to make a rudimentary way of tracking such growth in other, affected countries.
https://cov-lineages.org/global_report.html - https://archive.is/Tq5cb - Keeps track of which countries have tested positive. ( https://twitter.com/AineToole posts when new reports come out)
OurWorldInData of said countries (dropping Australia): https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?yScale=log&zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-09-17..latest&country=GBR~PRT~ITA~DNK~IRL~ISR~NLD~NOR~FRA~ESP®ion=World&casesMetric=true&interval=smoothed&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=new_cases_per_million&pickerSort=desc
Another idea, long an Israeli ETF (ITEQ) and short either the world or Europe, (VTI or VGK). They seem to be the only country on pace to immunize enough people before the wave hits.