Forecast: Recursively Self-improving AI for 2033
Context: * One way to measure how good LLMs are which is gaining traction and validity is the following: * Let T(t) be the time it takes for a human to the task t. * Empirically, a given LLM will be able to fully accomplish (without extra human correction) almost...
The doubling time is not 53 days but roughly 6-7 months.
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GHxWxRFto32jedmJh/prediction-recursively-self-improving-ai-for-2033
From your own METR source: