A couple of months ago, Intrade had Ron Paul at close to 10%, the polls had him at 4 or 5%, and anyone with even the slightest hint of a suggestion of a clue knew that Ron Paul had 0% chance of getting the nomination. Now THAT was easy money. The Hillary/Obama trade is nowhere near a slam dunk.
Dave D... yes, I did. I didn't short at the peak, I didn't cover at zero, and Silas is absolutely right about the opportunity cost. I didn't commit a lot of capital because of the logistical problems and my unfamiliarity with the platform, so this was definitely more "edutainment" than investment, but yes, I did, I sold Ron Paul short and made money doing it. If I see another slam dunk, I'll do it all again, with more capital.