I appreciate an attempt to identify a new construct, but the thinking here is still too amorphous to benefit much from peer review.
I think the name for this construct needs help. "[Statistical literacy] is not about knowledge of statistical tools and techniques," so why not call it something else? Contrast with literacy, graph literacy, numeracy, or lay rationalism. The construct definition is also missing:
This captures many of the things I think are covered by statistical literacy:
- It is not...
- It emphasises..
- It suggests...
- It tells...
Given that what the con...
My experience in some Southern towns is similar: either applied only to districts or zones so not as widely as people mythologize, or misinterpreted as referring to fewer people than the plain text reveals.
My guess is the overall Amtrak number is the outlier, including lots of miles of open land. Perhaps relevant for assessing safety/mile when you'd otherwise drive or fly it, but not as relevant for assessing safety/risk in urban areas.
Here's some data (Miami Herald). It seems like a bit of a perfect storm of being in a denser and more night-active area, having more crossings, lacking fencing, not sounding horns (thanks locals!), etc. It's easy to blame victims since the tracks don't move, but it's clear that design factors contribute to safety, and Brightline has leaned into just letting the deaths happen (including inaccurately characterizing them).
I agree, the meta-point of selection bias is valid but the direction of bias is unclear.
I agree this is better (the system rewards only a subset of what it does), but it is still overgeneralizing. Systems could have a different purpose but fallible reward structure (also Goodharting). You could be analyzing the purpose-reward link at the wrong level: political parties want change, so they seek power, so they need donations. This makes it look like the purpose is to just get donations because of rewards to bundlers, but it ignores the rewards at other levels and confuses local rewards with global purpose. Just as a system does a lot of things, so it rewards a lot of things.
That's true and a very important point I wish I had included. I assumed consciousness and some unstated degree of able-bodiedness. A good hit to the head on the way in and/or certain physical limitations, and mere inches of depth will be the determinant.
using urban firewood prices for what was mostly rural consumption.
Bernard Stanford: If you value all informal economy firewood production at market price, and then compare it to extant GDP estimates, you need to make sure ALL informal economic production is similarly valued, or you’ll massively overestimate firewood’s share of GDP. Seems to be what happened!
The approach seems to have a serious flaw in assuming that THIS sector of the informal economy was underestimated, but surely not any OTHER sector.
There are two different problems being raised her...
I too have grown increasingly skeptical that meta-analysis in its typical form does anything all that useful.
Unfortunately, people can be bad at understanding meta-analyses. If you have studies that disagree like 50/50, it's not necessarily true that half did something wrong. It's possible there is a legitimate hidden moderator that changes the effect of the variable (probably being revealed by the meta-analysis but not picked up sufficiently by popular reporting). Or even revealing that half have a fatal flaw would be a contribution of the meta-anal...
Yes, that's what I meant, thanks.
I'm glad she's totally fine. Maybe even a net positive for her and the family on future water safety. It showcases the importance of thinking about bodies of water beyond the prototypes.
A somewhat similar event occurred last weekend with my toddler in a pool. I was less than a foot away from him, as intended, and he was walking around in waist-deep water. Lost his feet but his waist is taller than his arms are long - so he needed me to intervene. He swallowed a little water in the less than two seconds he was sloshing around, but he otherwise didn't care.
T...
I think it would be great to formally lay out alternative hypotheses for why this behavior arises, so we can begin to update their likelihoods based on evidence as it accumulates. I have several:
Yep, frequentist null hypothesis significance testing often gets critiqued for the epistemic failures of the people who use it, even when the core of the approach is fine. By the way, the term you're describing is familywise error rate. The key questions are, do we care about that error rate, and who is in the family (answers depend on the research questions)?
Alternatively or in addition to this, you can embrace AI and design new tasks and assignments that cause students to learn together with the AI.
This magical suggestion needs explication.
From what I've seen via Ethan Mollick, instead of copy-pasting, the new assignments that would be effective are the same as the usual - just "do the work," but at the AI. Enter a simulation, but please don't dual-screen the task. Teach the AI (I guess the benefit here is immediate feedback, as if you couldn't use yourself or friend as a sounding board), but please don't dua...
Really enjoyed the post, but in the interest of rationality,
How many more older siblings should patrons of the Chelsea nightclub have than all other men in New York?
This question rests on the false premise(s) (i.e., model misspecification(s)) that homosexuality is only a function of birth order and that the Chelsea nightclub probability doesn't stem from heavy selection. Relatedly, gwern notes that, "surely homosexuality is not the primary trait the Catholic Church hierarchy is trying to select for." Maybe this was supposed to be more tongue-in-cheek. But identifying a cause does not require that it sufficiently explain something completely on its own.
I agree with you. Unless the signal is so strong that people believe that their personal experience is not representative of the economy, it's going to be overweighted. "I and half the people I know make less" will lead to discontent about the state of the economy. "I and half the people I know make less, but I am aware that GDP grew 40%, so the economy must be doing fine despite my personal experience" is possible, but let's just say it's not our prior.
Exactly, which is why the metric Mazlish prefers is so relevant and not bizarre, unless the premise that people judge the economy from their own experiences is incorrect.
Why is this what matters? It’s a bizarre metric. Why should we care what the median change was, instead of some form of mean change, or change in the mean or median wage?
The critique that the justification wasn't great because the mean wage dropped a lot in the example is fair. Yet, in the proposed alternative example it remains quite likely that people will perceive the economy as having gotten worse, even if the economy is objectively so much better - 2/3 will say they're personally worse off, insufficiently adjust for the impersonal ways of assessing th...
Literally macroeconomics 101. Trade surpluses aren't shipping goods for free. There is a whole balance of payments to consider. I'm shocked EY could get that so wrong, surprised that lsusr is so ready to agree, and confused because surely I missed something huge here, right?
Even though the number of product categories is relevant to reconstructing GDP from deconstructed GDP, the number of product categories available is not Quantity in this equation, it's n.
That's why you're not going to get "annual sales of Schmartphones would 60x over the time period, while maintaining constant GDP share" when the rest of the economy is growing at 0%. And why "The growth experienced by consumers however would be linear by any common sense understanding of the situation" is not true: the growth in the number of categories might be line... (read more)