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I made a list of mental operations utilized in forecasting, inspired by Scott Alexander and Gwern and I'd like to find out which work the best. If you're a Manifold user with at least 10 bets on your account and 6 minutes to spare, you can fill out my survey...
UPDATE (November 24) - If you have ChatGPT plus, you can try the GPT-bot version. This bot primarily searches through EA webs, if it fails to find anything relevant, it broadens the search to the whole web (more information here). I've made a simple website where you can limit your...
One could frame EA as the project of human alignment - of deconfusing ourselves about what we care about and figuring out how to actualize it. And there seems to be an interconnected bundle of problems at the core of this project: * What should we fundamentally value? * How...
Share your hot takes on what leads people to see AI risk as important! I will test the most promising hypotheses in a future poll. The time you take to think about them is up to you but careful introspection may take at least 8 minutes.